Sunderland 0-1 Liverpool – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sunderland at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sunderland face Liverpool.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Liverpool make the trip to Stadium of Light to face Sunderland in Premier League (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 20:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Sunderland have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Sunderland's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sunderland are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Liverpool's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Liverpool's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Sunderland against 1.60 for Liverpool. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Sunderland's last 10 home games and Liverpool's last 10 away games) — Sunderland have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Liverpool in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2025, ended Sunderland 1–1 Liverpool — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sunderland goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Liverpool goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 48% versus Liverpool 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 43% | Liverpool 64%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sunderland surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Liverpool have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.60 xG and Liverpool 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.022 / defence 0.795 | Liverpool attack 1.132 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.277. Sunderland have a tight defence (rating 0.795), which is pulling Liverpool's projected output down. Data: built from Sunderland's last 25 games and Liverpool's last 63.
Result probabilities: Sunderland 45% | Draw 31% | Liverpool 24%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.23 | Draw 3.26 | Liverpool 4.10. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sunderland's last 10 home games and Liverpool's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sunderland 60% (last 10 home games) | Liverpool 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Liverpool | Competition: Premier League, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 20:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 45% | Draw 31% | Liverpool 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Sunderland 1.60 / Liverpool 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.022 / def 0.795 | Liverpool attack 1.132 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Liverpool xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sunderland vs Liverpool FAQs
What time does Sunderland vs Liverpool kick off?
Sunderland vs Liverpool kicked off at 20:15 UK time on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Liverpool?
Sunderland 0 - 1 Liverpool.
Where is Sunderland vs Liverpool being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Liverpool part of?
Sunderland vs Liverpool is a Premier League fixture (matchday 26) (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Liverpool?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 45% chance of winning, Liverpool a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Liverpool?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sunderland and Liverpool will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sunderland vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sunderland's attack rating (1.02) and Liverpool's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Liverpool's attack (1.13x) against Sunderland's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Sunderland's last 25 games and Liverpool's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
45%
2.23
31%
3.26
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.75
1.15
Liverpool xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
5%
20.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.8 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sunderland vs Liverpool Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Liverpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Liverpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.15 for Liverpool, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Liverpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sunderland's recent record stands at 24W 22D 17L from 63 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Liverpool, meanwhile, have gone 36W 15D 12L across 63 games — 1.95 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Liverpool by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sunderland heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sunderland have managed 15W 12D 4L from their last 31 home games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Liverpool's away record stands at 15W 8D 8L across their last 31 away games, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sunderland are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Liverpool are on 2.00 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Liverpool in 62%.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Blended
Liverpool
Blended
Sunderland (Home) vs Liverpool (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sunderland
Blended
Liverpool
Blended
❓ Sunderland vs Liverpool Form FAQs
What form are Sunderland and Liverpool in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 24W 22D 17L in their last 63 games (1.49 PPG), while Liverpool have gone 36W 15D 12L in their last 63 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Liverpool away?
Sunderland's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.84 PPG; Liverpool away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Liverpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Liverpool in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 11 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sunderland
1
Draws
1
Liverpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Sunderland vs Liverpool H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Liverpool?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Sunderland have won 0, Liverpool have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Liverpool last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 February 2026: Sunderland 0-1 Liverpool.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Liverpool?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Liverpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 55%, Liverpool 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Sunderland) and 68% (Liverpool).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Liverpool in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Liverpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sunderland vs Liverpool Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sunderland and Liverpool matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Sunderland's games and 61% of Liverpool's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sunderland and Liverpool matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Sunderland's recent games and 68% of Liverpool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Liverpool matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Sunderland's recent matches and 74% of Liverpool's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Liverpool defy the odds to beat Sunderland 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat Sunderland 0-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.60 xG and Liverpool 1.15 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sunderland fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.02 / defence 0.80 against Liverpool attack 1.13 / defence 1.07, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 45% | Draw 31% | Liverpool 24%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Liverpool win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 43%, Liverpool 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Liverpool's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.49. Form held, and they took the win. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Premier League fixtures — matchday 26
All Premier League fixtures →
More UK football predictions →