Sunderland 1-3 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sunderland face Fulham.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fulham make the trip to Stadium of Light to face Sunderland in Premier League (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Sunderland (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Sunderland at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Sunderland are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Fulham have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Fulham have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Sunderland, 1.40 for Fulham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Fulham edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Sunderland 0–1 Fulham — a Fulham win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Sunderland — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Fulham — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 47% versus Fulham 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 42% | Fulham 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sunderland surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Fulham have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Fulham surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Sunderland recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.56 xG and Fulham 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.941 / defence 0.807 | Fulham attack 0.871 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.268. Data: built from Sunderland's last 26 games and Fulham's last 64.
Result probabilities: Sunderland 50% | Draw 32% | Fulham 18%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.01 | Draw 3.12 | Fulham 5.49. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sunderland are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sunderland 50% (last 10 home games) | Fulham 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 50% | Draw 32% | Fulham 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Sunderland 1.56 / Fulham 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 0.941 / def 0.807 | Fulham attack 0.871 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Fulham xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sunderland vs Fulham FAQs
What time does Sunderland vs Fulham kick off?
Sunderland vs Fulham kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Fulham?
Sunderland 1 - 3 Fulham.
Where is Sunderland vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Fulham part of?
Sunderland vs Fulham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 27) (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 50% chance of winning, Fulham a 18% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sunderland and Fulham will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Sunderland vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sunderland's attack rating (0.94) and Fulham's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (0.87x) against Sunderland's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from Sunderland's last 26 games and Fulham's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
50%
2.01
32%
3.12
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.45
0.89
Fulham xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
4%
26.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sunderland vs Fulham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.89 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sunderland come into this having played 64 games, going 24W 22D 18L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.38 PPG from 64 outings (25W 13D 26L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Sunderland against 1.38 for Fulham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sunderland's home form reads 15W 12D 5L across their last 32 home games, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 1.22 points per game from their last 32 away games (11W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sunderland are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.39 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham in 67%.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Blended
Fulham
Blended
Sunderland (Home) vs Fulham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sunderland
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Sunderland vs Fulham Form FAQs
What form are Sunderland and Fulham in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 24W 22D 18L in their last 64 games (1.47 PPG), while Fulham have gone 25W 13D 26L in their last 64 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Fulham away?
Sunderland's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.78 PPG; Fulham away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 3 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sunderland have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Sunderland
0
Draws
2
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Sunderland vs Fulham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Fulham?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Sunderland have won 1, Fulham have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Fulham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Sunderland 1-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 53%, Fulham 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Sunderland) and 53% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sunderland vs Fulham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sunderland and Fulham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Sunderland's games and 66% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sunderland and Fulham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Sunderland's recent games and 53% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Fulham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Sunderland's recent matches and 72% of Fulham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fulham cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sunderland.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Sunderland 1-3 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.56 xG and Fulham 0.89 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Fulham outscored their 0.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.94 / defence 0.81 against Fulham attack 0.87 / defence 1.16, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 50% | Draw 32% | Fulham 18%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Fulham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 42%, Fulham 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Fulham's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.47 PPG, Fulham 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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