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Poisson rates Fulham at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fulham vs Tottenham encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Tottenham travel to Craven Cottage to take on Fulham. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 March 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Fulham stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fulham at Craven Cottage this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Premier League games this season, Tottenham have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tottenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Tottenham have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Fulham carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Fulham, 3 for Tottenham and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Fulham winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Fulham in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

Tottenham in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fulham 68% and Tottenham 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 58% | Tottenham 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.85 xG and Tottenham 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.160 / defence 1.053 | Tottenham attack 0.957 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.302. Data: 65 Fulham games / 65 Tottenham games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fulham 48% | Draw 27% | Tottenham 25%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Tottenham 4.00. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 60% | Tottenham 50% BTTS from recent games.

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