Liverpool 3-1 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Liverpool at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Liverpool face Crystal Palace.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crystal Palace make the trip to Anfield to face Liverpool in Premier League (matchday 34). The match kicks off on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Liverpool (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Liverpool's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Crystal Palace's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Crystal Palace have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Liverpool's last 10 home games and Crystal Palace's last 10 away games) — Liverpool have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Crystal Palace in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Liverpool, 2 for Crystal Palace and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Liverpool 1–2 Crystal Palace — a Crystal Palace win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Liverpool goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 70 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Crystal Palace goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 70 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Liverpool 63% versus Crystal Palace 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liverpool 63% | Crystal Palace 46%). Note also that Crystal Palace surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Liverpool recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liverpool 1.61 xG and Crystal Palace 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liverpool attack 1.206 / defence 0.923 | Crystal Palace attack 0.988 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.269. Data: built from Liverpool's last 71 games and Crystal Palace's last 70.
Result probabilities: Liverpool 46% | Draw 28% | Crystal Palace 26%. Fair-value odds: Liverpool 2.15 | Draw 3.61 | Crystal Palace 3.87. Liverpool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Liverpool at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Liverpool if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Liverpool's last 10 home games and Crystal Palace's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Liverpool 70% (last 10 home games) | Crystal Palace 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liverpool vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, matchday 34 | Venue: Anfield • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liverpool 46% | Draw 28% | Crystal Palace 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Liverpool 1.61 / Crystal Palace 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Liverpool attack 1.206 / def 0.923 | Crystal Palace attack 0.988 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Liverpool xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Crystal Palace xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Liverpool vs Crystal Palace FAQs
What time does Liverpool vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Anfield.
What was the final score in Liverpool vs Crystal Palace?
Liverpool 3 - 1 Crystal Palace.
Where is Liverpool vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at Anfield.
What competition is Liverpool vs Crystal Palace part of?
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace is a Premier League fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win Liverpool vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Liverpool a 46% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Liverpool and Crystal Palace will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Liverpool vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Liverpool's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Crystal Palace's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Crystal Palace's attack (0.99x) against Liverpool's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Liverpool's last 71 games and Crystal Palace's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
46%
2.15
28%
3.61
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Liverpool xG
Total xG
2.77
1.16
Crystal Palace xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
5%
19.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Liverpool vs Crystal Palace Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Liverpool vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Liverpool and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Liverpool and 1.16 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Liverpool vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Liverpool's recent record stands at 40W 16D 14L from 70 games, a 1.94 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Crystal Palace, meanwhile, have gone 24W 24D 22L across 70 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-W-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Liverpool by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crystal Palace heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Liverpool have managed 22W 8D 4L from their last 34 home games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crystal Palace's away record stands at 14W 9D 11L across their last 34 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Liverpool are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.23 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Liverpool have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liverpool
Current Season
Crystal Palace
Current Season
Liverpool (Home) vs Crystal Palace (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Liverpool
Current Season
Crystal Palace
Current Season
❓ Liverpool vs Crystal Palace Form FAQs
What form are Liverpool and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Liverpool have gone 40W 16D 14L in their last 70 games (1.94 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 24W 24D 22L in their last 70 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liverpool at home or Crystal Palace away?
Liverpool's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liverpool at home: 2.18 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Liverpool or Crystal Palace been keeping clean sheets recently?
Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Crystal Palace in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Liverpool and Crystal Palace, the earliest from January 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Liverpool have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Liverpool have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Crystal Palace — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Liverpool
3
Draws
2
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Liverpool vs Crystal Palace H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Crystal Palace?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Liverpool have won 5, Crystal Palace have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Liverpool and Crystal Palace last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Crystal Palace 1-3 Liverpool.
Who has won more matches between Liverpool and Crystal Palace?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Liverpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Crystal Palace are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liverpool 65%, Crystal Palace 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Liverpool) and 47% (Crystal Palace).
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liverpool home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Liverpool vs Crystal Palace Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Liverpool and Crystal Palace matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Liverpool's games and 53% of Crystal Palace's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Liverpool and Crystal Palace matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Liverpool's recent games and 47% of Crystal Palace's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Liverpool and Crystal Palace matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Liverpool's recent matches and 68% of Crystal Palace's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Liverpool cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Crystal Palace.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat Crystal Palace 3-1 at Anfield, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.61 xG and Crystal Palace 1.16 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Liverpool beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.21 / defence 0.92 against Crystal Palace attack 0.99 / defence 0.96, drawn from 71/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liverpool 46% | Draw 28% | Crystal Palace 26%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 63%, Crystal Palace 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liverpool's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.37. That form edge translated into the three points. Liverpool (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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