Sunderland 0-5 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Nottingham Forest at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Nottingham Forest travel to Stadium of Light to take on Sunderland. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 April 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Sunderland have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadium of Light, Sunderland have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Nottingham Forest — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Nottingham Forest away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Sunderland) versus 1.10 (Nottingham Forest). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sunderland, 0 for Nottingham Forest and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Sunderland winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sunderland trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Nottingham Forest trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 48% versus Nottingham Forest 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 42% | Nottingham Forest 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.15 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.825 / defence 0.915 | Nottingham Forest attack 1.074 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.249. Data: 33 Sunderland games / 71 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 32% | Draw 32% | Nottingham Forest 36%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Nottingham Forest 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nottingham Forest are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Sunderland 40% | Nottingham Forest 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Friday 24 Apr 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 32% | Draw 32% | Nottingham Forest 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Sunderland 1.15 / Nottingham Forest 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 0.825 / def 0.915 | Nottingham Forest attack 1.074 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Nottingham Forest xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 24 April 2026 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest?
Sunderland 0 - 5 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 32% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sunderland and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Nottingham Forest?
Record (1 meetings): Sunderland 1W | Draws 0 | Nottingham Forest 0W.
What form are Sunderland and Nottingham Forest in?
Sunderland (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sunderland's attack rating (0.82) and Nottingham Forest's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nottingham Forest's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
32%
3.11
32%
3.14
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.38
1.23
Nottingham Forest xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
9%
10.63
11%
8.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.4 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.23 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sunderland come into this having played 71 games, going 27W 23D 21L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Nottingham Forest sit at 1.42 PPG from 71 outings (28W 17D 26L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sunderland on 1.46 PPG, Nottingham Forest on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sunderland's home form reads 16W 12D 7L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Nottingham Forest have taken 1.46 points per game from 35 outings (15W 6D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sunderland are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.32 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Current Season
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 27W 23D 21L in their last 71 games (1.46 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 28W 17D 26L in their last 71 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Sunderland's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.71 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sunderland
0
Draws
1
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Nottingham Forest?
From 2 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 1, Nottingham Forest have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Sunderland 0-5 Nottingham Forest.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sunderland see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 51%, Nottingham Forest 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Sunderland) and 63% (Nottingham Forest).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Nottingham Forest?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Sunderland's recent matches and 51% of Nottingham Forest's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Sunderland's recent games and 63% of Nottingham Forest's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Nottingham Forest tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Nottingham Forest in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Nottingham Forest run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Sunderland.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest beat Sunderland 0-5 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.15 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.23 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Sunderland fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Nottingham Forest outscored their 1.23 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.82 / defence 0.92 against Nottingham Forest attack 1.07 / defence 0.99, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 32% | Draw 32% | Nottingham Forest 36%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 42%, Nottingham Forest 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.46 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.