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Poisson model rates Everton at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Liverpool fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 33 as Everton welcome Liverpool to Hill Dickinson Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Everton's home record at Hill Dickinson Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Liverpool — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Liverpool's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Everton) versus 1.60 (Liverpool). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Liverpool, who boast 6 victories compared to 1 for Everton.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Liverpool winning.

It is worth noting that Liverpool have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Everton in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Liverpool in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 43% versus Liverpool 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 37% | Liverpool 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.44 xG and Liverpool 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.986 / defence 0.939 | Liverpool attack 1.039 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.247. Data: 70 Everton games / 70 Liverpool games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Everton 40% | Draw 30% | Liverpool 30%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Liverpool 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Everton as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton 50% | Liverpool 60% BTTS from recent games.

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