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Poisson model rates Fulham at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Aston Villa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Craven Cottage plays host to Fulham versus Aston Villa in Premier League, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.

Current Form

Fulham's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Fulham's home record at Craven Cottage: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Fulham are significantly better at Craven Cottage than their overall form suggests.

Aston Villa (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Aston Villa away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Fulham, 1.20 for Aston Villa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Fulham register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Aston Villa in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

Across the last 7 meetings, Aston Villa have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Fulham's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 1–3 with Aston Villa winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Aston Villa have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).

Aston Villa half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fulham 65% and Aston Villa 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 56% | Aston Villa 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.61 xG and Aston Villa 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.079 / defence 1.008 | Aston Villa attack 0.962 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.278. Data: 71 Fulham games / 71 Aston Villa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fulham 44% | Draw 28% | Aston Villa 28%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Aston Villa 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 80% | Aston Villa 70% BTTS from recent games.

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