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Poisson rates West Ham at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Ham vs Everton encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 34 as West Ham welcome Everton to London Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

West Ham — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

West Ham at London Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Everton's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (West Ham) versus 1.40 (Everton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for West Ham, 2 for Everton and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 9 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

West Ham in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Everton in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 59% versus Everton 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 54% | Everton 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.37 xG and Everton 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 1.081 / defence 0.999 | Everton attack 1.003 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.269. Data: 71 West Ham games / 71 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: West Ham 38% | Draw 29% | Everton 33%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Everton 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, West Ham are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on West Ham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: West Ham 60% | Everton 40%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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