Crystal Palace 0-0 West Ham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crystal Palace at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crystal Palace vs West Ham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Selhurst Park plays host to Crystal Palace versus West Ham in Premier League, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Monday 20 April 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Crystal Palace's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Crystal Palace's home record at Selhurst Park: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
West Ham have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, West Ham have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Crystal Palace, 1.50 for West Ham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across 9 previous meetings, Crystal Palace are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 2, with 2 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.9 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Crystal Palace winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Crystal Palace and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Crystal Palace half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
West Ham half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crystal Palace 55% versus West Ham 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 46% | West Ham 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.34 xG and West Ham 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.796 / defence 0.993 | West Ham attack 0.923 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.268. Crystal Palace's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 69 Crystal Palace games / 70 West Ham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 39% | Draw 31% | West Ham 30%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | West Ham 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crystal Palace are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Crystal Palace 50% | West Ham 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs West Ham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Monday 20 Apr 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 39% | Draw 31% | West Ham 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Crystal Palace 1.34 / West Ham 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 0.796 / def 0.993 | West Ham attack 0.923 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
1.16
West Ham xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crystal Palace vs West Ham kick off?
Crystal Palace vs West Ham kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 20 April 2026 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs West Ham?
Crystal Palace 0 - 0 West Ham.
Where is Crystal Palace vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs West Ham part of?
Crystal Palace vs West Ham is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 39% chance of winning, West Ham a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Crystal Palace and West Ham will score (BTTS).
Will Crystal Palace vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and West Ham?
Record (9 meetings): Crystal Palace 5W | Draws 2 | West Ham 2W.
What form are Crystal Palace and West Ham in?
Crystal Palace (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. West Ham (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Crystal Palace's attack rating (0.80) and West Ham's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — West Ham's attack (0.92x) against Crystal Palace's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 69/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
39%
2.58
31%
3.24
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
2.50
1.16
West Ham xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
8%
12.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.16 for West Ham, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs West Ham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 69 outings, Crystal Palace have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 24W 23D 22L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
West Ham's form line: 19W 18D 32L from 69 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Crystal Palace against 1.09 for West Ham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Crystal Palace have posted 1.26 PPG from 35 outings (10W 14D 11L).
On the road, West Ham have gone 10W 9D 16L from 35 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 1.23 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Current Season
West Ham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crystal Palace and West Ham in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 24W 23D 22L in their last 69 games (1.38 PPG), while West Ham have gone 19W 18D 32L in their last 69 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or West Ham away?
Crystal Palace's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.26 PPG; West Ham away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Crystal Palace or West Ham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, West Ham in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Crystal Palace won 5-2 on 21 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crystal Palace have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against West Ham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Crystal Palace
3
Draws
2
West Ham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and West Ham?
From 10 meetings on record, Crystal Palace have won 5, West Ham have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and West Ham last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Crystal Palace 0-0 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between Crystal Palace and West Ham?
Crystal Palace have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Crystal Palace are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
West Ham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 57%, West Ham 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Crystal Palace) and 49% (West Ham).
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crystal Palace play West Ham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Crystal Palace's games and 57% of West Ham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crystal Palace vs West Ham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Crystal Palace's recent games and 49% of West Ham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crystal Palace and West Ham tend to score early?
Crystal Palace have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, West Ham in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Crystal Palace's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 33, as Crystal Palace and West Ham drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.34 xG and West Ham 1.16 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Crystal Palace fell 1.3 short of their projected output. West Ham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.80 / defence 0.99 against West Ham attack 0.92 / defence 1.19, drawn from 69/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 39% | Draw 31% | West Ham 30%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 46%, West Ham 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
West Ham's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.38 PPG, West Ham 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.