Brentford 0-0 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brentford at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Brentford face Fulham.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Brentford welcome Fulham to Brentford Community Stadium in Premier League (matchday 33). Kick-off is Saturday 18 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Brentford have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Brentford have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Fulham stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fulham away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Brentford 1.40 PPG, Fulham 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Brentford, 4 for Fulham and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2025, ended Brentford 1–3 Fulham — a Fulham win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Brentford in-play and half-time data (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Fulham in-play and half-time data (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brentford 60% and Fulham 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brentford 56% | Fulham 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Brentford surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Fulham have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brentford 1.67 xG and Fulham 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brentford attack 1.116 / defence 1.088 | Fulham attack 0.856 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.263. Data: built from Brentford's last 70 games and Fulham's last 70.
Result probabilities: Brentford 47% | Draw 28% | Fulham 25%. Fair-value odds: Brentford 2.13 | Draw 3.58 | Fulham 4.00. Brentford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brentford at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brentford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Brentford's last 10 home games and Fulham's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Brentford 60% (last 10 home games) | Fulham 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brentford vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 33 | Venue: Brentford Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brentford 47% | Draw 28% | Fulham 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Brentford 1.67 / Fulham 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Brentford attack 1.116 / def 1.088 | Fulham attack 0.856 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Brentford (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Brentford xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Fulham xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Brentford vs Fulham FAQs
What time does Brentford vs Fulham kick off?
Brentford vs Fulham kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Brentford Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Brentford vs Fulham?
Brentford 0 - 0 Fulham.
Where is Brentford vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Brentford Community Stadium.
What competition is Brentford vs Fulham part of?
Brentford vs Fulham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 33) (England).
Who is favourite to win Brentford vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Brentford a 47% chance of winning, Fulham a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Brentford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brentford vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Brentford and Fulham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Brentford vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Brentford's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Fulham's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Brentford's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Brentford's last 70 games and Fulham's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brentford Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.58
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Brentford xG
Total xG
2.85
1.18
Fulham xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
5%
21.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Brentford vs Fulham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Brentford vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Brentford and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Brentford and 1.18 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Brentford vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brentford come into this having played 70 games, going 29W 16D 25L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.40 PPG from 70 outings (28W 14D 28L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brentford on 1.47 PPG, Fulham on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Brentford's home form reads 16W 10D 9L across their last 35 home games, a 1.66 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 1.23 points per game from their last 35 away games (12W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brentford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Brentford are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.39 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brentford have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Fulham in 66%.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brentford
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
Brentford (Home) vs Fulham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Brentford
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
❓ Brentford vs Fulham Form FAQs
What form are Brentford and Fulham in coming into this match?
Brentford have gone 29W 16D 25L in their last 70 games (1.47 PPG), while Fulham have gone 28W 14D 28L in their last 70 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brentford at home or Fulham away?
Brentford's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brentford at home: 1.66 PPG; Fulham away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Aug 2023, when Brentford won Fulham 0-3 Brentford.
Brentford's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Brentford
2
Draws
4
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Brentford vs Fulham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Brentford and Fulham?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Brentford have won 2, Fulham have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brentford and Fulham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: Brentford 0-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Brentford and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brentford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Brentford at 69%, Fulham at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Brentford) and 51% (Fulham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brentford have failed to score in 26% of games; Fulham in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brentford home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Brentford vs Fulham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Brentford and Fulham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Brentford's games and 63% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Brentford and Fulham matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Brentford's matches and 51% of Fulham's.
Do Brentford and Fulham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Brentford's recent matches and 69% of Fulham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Brentford's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brentford and Fulham finished level at 0-0 at Brentford Community Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brentford 1.67 xG and Fulham 1.18 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Brentford fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Fulham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brentford attack 1.12 / defence 1.09 against Fulham attack 0.86 / defence 1.08, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brentford 47% | Draw 28% | Fulham 25%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brentford 56%, Fulham 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brentford's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fulham's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brentford 1.47 PPG, Fulham 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Brentford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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