Liverpool 2-0 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Liverpool at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Liverpool vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Anfield plays host to Liverpool versus Fulham in Premier League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Liverpool's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Liverpool have posted 4W 4D 2L at Anfield — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fulham have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fulham's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Liverpool, 1.30 for Fulham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Liverpool 3W, Fulham 1W, 3D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Liverpool half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Liverpool 62% and Fulham 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liverpool 62% | Fulham 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liverpool 1.77 xG and Fulham 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liverpool attack 1.194 / defence 1.002 | Fulham attack 0.936 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.263. Data: 69 Liverpool games / 69 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Liverpool 49% | Draw 27% | Fulham 24%. Fair-value odds: Liverpool 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Fulham 4.17. Liverpool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Liverpool are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Liverpool if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Liverpool 70% | Fulham 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liverpool vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Anfield • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liverpool 49% | Draw 27% | Fulham 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Liverpool 1.77 / Fulham 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Liverpool attack 1.194 / def 1.002 | Fulham attack 0.936 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Liverpool xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Fulham xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Liverpool vs Fulham kick off?
Liverpool vs Fulham kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Anfield.
What was the final score in Liverpool vs Fulham?
Liverpool 2 - 0 Fulham.
Where is Liverpool vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Anfield.
What competition is Liverpool vs Fulham part of?
Liverpool vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Liverpool vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Liverpool a 49% chance of winning, Fulham a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Liverpool and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Liverpool vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Fulham?
Record (7 meetings): Liverpool 3W | Draws 3 | Fulham 1W.
What form are Liverpool and Fulham in?
Liverpool (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Fulham (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Liverpool's attack at 1.19x the league average against Fulham's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (0.94x) against Liverpool's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.69
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Liverpool xG
Total xG
2.95
1.19
Fulham xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
4%
24.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Liverpool vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Liverpool and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Liverpool and 1.19 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Liverpool vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 69 outings, Liverpool have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 39W 16D 14L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Fulham's form line: 28W 14D 27L from 69 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Liverpool are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fulham.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Liverpool have posted 2.18 PPG from 34 outings (22W 8D 4L).
On the road, Fulham have gone 12W 7D 15L from 34 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Liverpool are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.41 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Liverpool have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Fulham in 67%.
Last 69 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liverpool
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Liverpool and Fulham in coming into this match?
Liverpool have gone 39W 16D 14L in their last 69 games (1.93 PPG), while Fulham have gone 28W 14D 27L in their last 69 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liverpool at home or Fulham away?
Liverpool's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liverpool at home: 2.18 PPG; Fulham away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Liverpool or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Fulham in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Liverpool have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Liverpool
3
Draws
1
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, Liverpool have won 4, Fulham have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Liverpool and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Liverpool 2-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Liverpool and Fulham?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Liverpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liverpool 65%, Fulham 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Liverpool) and 53% (Fulham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liverpool home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Liverpool play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Liverpool's games and 65% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Liverpool vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Liverpool's matches and 53% of Fulham's.
Do Liverpool and Fulham tend to score early?
Liverpool have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Fulham in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Liverpool cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fulham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat Fulham 2-0 at Anfield, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.77 xG and Fulham 1.19 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fulham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.19 / defence 1.00 against Fulham attack 0.94 / defence 1.07, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liverpool 49% | Draw 27% | Fulham 24%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 62%, Fulham 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liverpool's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fulham's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.42. Form held, and they took the win. Liverpool (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.