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Poisson model rates Nottingham Forest at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nottingham Forest vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Nottingham Forest host Burnley at City Ground in Premier League, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Nottingham Forest — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home at City Ground, Nottingham Forest have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Burnley's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Nottingham Forest are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Nottingham Forest have won 1, Burnley 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Nottingham Forest in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Burnley in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 44% versus Burnley 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 50% | Burnley 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.33 xG and Burnley 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.688 / defence 0.879 | Burnley attack 0.833 / defence 1.416. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.247. Nottingham Forest's attack strength of 0.688 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.416 — this is suppressing Nottingham Forest's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 70 Nottingham Forest games / 32 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 44% | Draw 32% | Burnley 23%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Burnley 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Nottingham Forest at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Nottingham Forest 30% | Burnley 70%.

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