Nottingham Forest 4-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nottingham Forest at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nottingham Forest vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nottingham Forest host Burnley at City Ground in Premier League, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nottingham Forest — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at City Ground, Nottingham Forest have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Burnley's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Nottingham Forest are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Nottingham Forest have won 1, Burnley 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Nottingham Forest in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Burnley in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 44% versus Burnley 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 50% | Burnley 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.33 xG and Burnley 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.688 / defence 0.879 | Burnley attack 0.833 / defence 1.416. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.247. Nottingham Forest's attack strength of 0.688 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.416 — this is suppressing Nottingham Forest's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 70 Nottingham Forest games / 32 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 44% | Draw 32% | Burnley 23%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Burnley 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nottingham Forest at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Nottingham Forest 30% | Burnley 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: City Ground • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 44% | Draw 32% | Burnley 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.33 / Burnley 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.688 / def 0.879 | Burnley attack 0.833 / def 1.416 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Burnley xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Burnley kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Burnley kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Burnley?
Nottingham Forest 4 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Burnley part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 44% chance of winning, Burnley a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Burnley?
Record (3 meetings): Nottingham Forest 1W | Draws 2 | Burnley 0W.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Burnley in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Burnley (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nottingham Forest's attack at 0.69x the league average against Burnley's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Nottingham Forest's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
44%
2.25
32%
3.11
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.25
0.91
Burnley xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
6%
16.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.9 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 0.91 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 70 outings, Nottingham Forest have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 27W 17D 26L record — L-D-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Burnley's form line: 27W 22D 21L from 70 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nottingham Forest on 1.40 PPG, Burnley on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nottingham Forest have posted 1.34 PPG from 35 outings (12W 11D 12L).
On the road, Burnley have gone 14W 9D 12L from 35 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.26 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Burnley in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 27W 17D 26L in their last 70 games (1.40 PPG), while Burnley have gone 27W 22D 21L in their last 70 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Burnley away?
Burnley's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.34 PPG; Burnley away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Nottingham Forest or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Burnley in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2026, when Nottingham Forest won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nottingham Forest's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nottingham Forest
2
Draws
0
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Burnley?
From 4 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 2, Burnley have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Nottingham Forest 4-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Burnley?
Nottingham Forest have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nottingham Forest see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 37%, Burnley 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Nottingham Forest) and 49% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Burnley in 37%; Nottingham Forest have failed to score in 40% of games; Burnley in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 49% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Nottingham Forest's recent games and 49% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nottingham Forest and Burnley tend to score early?
Nottingham Forest have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Burnley in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Nottingham Forest run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest beat Burnley 4-1 at City Ground, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.33 xG and Burnley 0.91 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Nottingham Forest beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.69 / defence 0.88 against Burnley attack 0.83 / defence 1.42, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 44% | Draw 32% | Burnley 23%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 50%, Burnley 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Burnley's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.40 PPG, Burnley 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Burnley (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.