Aston Villa 4-3 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aston Villa at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Aston Villa face Sunderland.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Villa Park plays host to Aston Villa versus Sunderland in Premier League (matchday 33). Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Aston Villa's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Aston Villa's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Aston Villa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Sunderland have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Sunderland's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Aston Villa, 0 for Sunderland and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended Aston Villa 1–1 Sunderland — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Aston Villa half-time and goal-timing data (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aston Villa 57% versus Sunderland 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aston Villa 56% | Sunderland 41%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Aston Villa surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Sunderland have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Sunderland surrender HT leads in 39% of cases while Aston Villa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 47% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aston Villa 1.41 xG and Sunderland 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aston Villa attack 0.990 / defence 0.885 | Sunderland attack 0.713 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.247. Sunderland's attack rating of 0.713 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Data: built from Aston Villa's last 70 games and Sunderland's last 32.
Result probabilities: Aston Villa 50% | Draw 31% | Sunderland 19%. Fair-value odds: Aston Villa 2.01 | Draw 3.19 | Sunderland 5.30. Aston Villa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aston Villa at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aston Villa if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Aston Villa 50% (last 10 home games) | Sunderland 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aston Villa vs Sunderland | Competition: Premier League, matchday 33 | Venue: Villa Park • Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aston Villa 50% | Draw 31% | Sunderland 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Aston Villa 1.41 / Sunderland 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Aston Villa attack 0.990 / def 0.885 | Sunderland attack 0.713 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Aston Villa (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Aston Villa xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Sunderland xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Aston Villa vs Sunderland FAQs
What time does Aston Villa vs Sunderland kick off?
Aston Villa vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Villa Park.
What was the final score in Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Aston Villa 4 - 3 Sunderland.
Where is Aston Villa vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Villa Park.
What competition is Aston Villa vs Sunderland part of?
Aston Villa vs Sunderland is a Premier League fixture (matchday 33) (England).
Who is favourite to win Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Aston Villa a 50% chance of winning, Sunderland a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Aston Villa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Aston Villa and Sunderland will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Aston Villa vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Aston Villa's attack at 0.99x the league average against Sunderland's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (0.71x) against Aston Villa's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from Aston Villa's last 70 games and Sunderland's last 32 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aston Villa Win
50%
2.01
31%
3.19
19%
5.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Aston Villa xG
Total xG
2.20
0.79
Sunderland xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
5.30
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
46%
2.20
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
5%
21.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 8.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.3 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Aston Villa vs Sunderland Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Aston Villa and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Aston Villa and 0.79 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aston Villa come into this having played 70 games, going 35W 16D 19L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Sunderland sit at 1.49 PPG from 70 outings (27W 23D 20L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Aston Villa against 1.49 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Aston Villa's home form reads 21W 9D 5L across their last 35 home games, a 2.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Sunderland have taken 1.26 points per game from their last 35 away games (11W 11D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aston Villa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Aston Villa are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.07 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aston Villa
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
Aston Villa (Home) vs Sunderland (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Aston Villa
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
❓ Aston Villa vs Sunderland Form FAQs
What form are Aston Villa and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Aston Villa have gone 35W 16D 19L in their last 70 games (1.73 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 27W 23D 20L in their last 70 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aston Villa at home or Sunderland away?
Aston Villa's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aston Villa at home: 2.06 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Aston Villa or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aston Villa have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Sunderland in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Aston Villa and Sunderland, the earliest from September 2025. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Aston Villa
1
Draws
0
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Aston Villa vs Sunderland H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Sunderland?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Aston Villa have won 1, Sunderland have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Aston Villa and Sunderland last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2026: Aston Villa 4-3 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Aston Villa and Sunderland?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aston Villa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aston Villa 60%, Sunderland 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Aston Villa) and 43% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Sunderland in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aston Villa home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Aston Villa vs Sunderland Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Aston Villa and Sunderland matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Aston Villa's recent matches and 43% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Aston Villa and Sunderland matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Aston Villa's recent games and 43% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aston Villa and Sunderland matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Aston Villa's recent matches and 63% of Sunderland's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Aston Villa edge out Sunderland 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aston Villa beat Sunderland 4-3 at Villa Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 1.41 xG and Sunderland 0.79 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Aston Villa beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sunderland outscored their 0.79 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 0.99 / defence 0.89 against Sunderland attack 0.71 / defence 1.04, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 50% | Draw 31% | Sunderland 19%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 56%, Sunderland 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aston Villa's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Sunderland's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aston Villa 1.73 PPG, Sunderland 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aston Villa win broke the near-deadlock. Aston Villa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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