Stockport County 0-0 Leyton Orient – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Leyton Orient encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Stockport County welcome Leyton Orient to Edgeley Park in League One (matchday 31). Kick-off is Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:01 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Stockport County have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stockport County's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Leyton Orient — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Leyton Orient's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 0D 9L (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Stockport County are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Stockport County have won 2, Leyton Orient 2, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.1 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 16 Aug 2025, ended Stockport County 2–2 Leyton Orient — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Stockport County trading profile (last 77 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Leyton Orient trading profile (last 77 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 57% versus Leyton Orient 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 47% | Leyton Orient 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 2.03 xG and Leyton Orient 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.104 / defence 1.145 | Leyton Orient attack 0.948 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.106. Leyton Orient's defence rating of 1.360 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stockport County's projected output up. Data: built from Stockport County's last 75 games and Leyton Orient's last 75.
Result probabilities: Stockport County 57% | Draw 21% | Leyton Orient 22%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.77 | Draw 4.69 | Leyton Orient 4.52. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.03 / 1.20) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Stockport County's last 10 home games and Leyton Orient's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stockport County 60% (last 10 home games) | Leyton Orient 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Leyton Orient | Competition: League One, matchday 31 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:01 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 57% | Draw 21% | Leyton Orient 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Stockport County 2.03 / Leyton Orient 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.104 / def 1.145 | Leyton Orient attack 0.948 / def 1.360 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Leyton Orient xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stockport County vs Leyton Orient FAQs
What time does Stockport County vs Leyton Orient kick off?
Stockport County vs Leyton Orient kicked off at 15:01 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Leyton Orient?
Stockport County 0 - 0 Leyton Orient.
Where is Stockport County vs Leyton Orient being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Leyton Orient part of?
Stockport County vs Leyton Orient is a League One fixture (matchday 31) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Leyton Orient?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 57% chance of winning, Leyton Orient a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Leyton Orient?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Stockport County and Leyton Orient will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stockport County vs Leyton Orient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (1.10) and Leyton Orient's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Leyton Orient's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stockport County's last 75 games and Leyton Orient's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
57%
1.77
21%
4.69
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Stockport County xG
Total xG
3.23
1.20
Leyton Orient xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
13%
7.63
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
3%
34.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stockport County vs Leyton Orient Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Leyton Orient?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Leyton Orient expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.20 for Leyton Orient, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Leyton Orient?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stockport County come into this having played 77 games, going 40W 21D 16L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Leyton Orient sit at 1.45 PPG from 77 outings (33W 13D 31L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stockport County on 1.83 PPG, Leyton Orient on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Stockport County's home form reads 24W 8D 7L across their last 39 home games, a 2.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Leyton Orient have taken 1.23 points per game from their last 39 away games (15W 3D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stockport County are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Leyton Orient are on 1.48 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 77 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Current Season
Leyton Orient
Current Season
Stockport County (Home) vs Leyton Orient (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stockport County
Current Season
Leyton Orient
Current Season
❓ Stockport County vs Leyton Orient Form FAQs
What form are Stockport County and Leyton Orient in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 40W 21D 16L in their last 77 games (1.83 PPG), while Leyton Orient have gone 33W 13D 31L in their last 77 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Leyton Orient away?
Stockport County's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.05 PPG; Leyton Orient away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Leyton Orient been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Leyton Orient in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2022. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 4 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Apr 2023, when Stockport County won Leyton Orient 0-3 Stockport County.
Stockport County's record when hosting Leyton Orient specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Stockport County
4
Draws
2
Leyton Orient
Recent Meetings
❓ Stockport County vs Leyton Orient H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Leyton Orient?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Stockport County have won 2, Leyton Orient have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Leyton Orient last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Stockport County 0-0 Leyton Orient.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 54% of those situations.
Leyton Orient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 59%, Leyton Orient 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Stockport County and 67% for Leyton Orient. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Leyton Orient in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Leyton Orient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stockport County vs Leyton Orient Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stockport County and Leyton Orient matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Stockport County's games and 51% of Leyton Orient's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Stockport County and Leyton Orient matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Stockport County's matches and 67% of Leyton Orient's.
Do Stockport County and Leyton Orient matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Stockport County's recent matches and 69% of Leyton Orient's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stockport County's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County and Leyton Orient finished level at 0-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 2.03 xG and Leyton Orient 1.20 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stockport County fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Leyton Orient landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.10 / defence 1.15 against Leyton Orient attack 0.95 / defence 1.36, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 57% | Draw 21% | Leyton Orient 22%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 47%, Leyton Orient 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (77 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Leyton Orient's trading profile (77 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.83 PPG, Leyton Orient 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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