🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Plymouth at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Stockport County host Plymouth at Edgeley Park in League One, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Stockport County stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Stockport County have posted 5W 2D 3L at Edgeley Park — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all League One games this season, Plymouth have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

On the road, Plymouth have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Stockport County at 1.70 PPG versus Plymouth's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Stockport County, 1 for Plymouth and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2025, ended 2–4 with Plymouth winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Stockport County in-play and half-time data (74 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Plymouth in-play and half-time data (74 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 58% versus Plymouth 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 46% | Plymouth 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.37 xG and Plymouth 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.056 / defence 1.228 | Plymouth attack 1.165 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.075. Data: 74 Stockport County games / 28 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Stockport County 34% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 41%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Plymouth 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 60% | Plymouth 40%.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights