Mansfield Town 0-0 Exeter City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mansfield Town at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mansfield Town vs Exeter City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
One Call Stadium plays host to Mansfield Town versus Exeter City in League One, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:01 UTC.
Current Form
Mansfield Town's overall League One record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mansfield Town at One Call Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Exeter City (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Exeter City's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Mansfield Town 3W, Exeter City 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Mansfield Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Mansfield Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Exeter City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 60% versus Exeter City 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 58% | Exeter City 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 1.38 xG and Exeter City 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 1.048 / defence 0.914 | Exeter City attack 1.026 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.106. Data: 73 Mansfield Town games / 74 Exeter City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 45% | Draw 27% | Exeter City 28%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Exeter City 3.57. Mansfield Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mansfield Town as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mansfield Town 50% | Exeter City 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Exeter City | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 15:01 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 45% | Draw 27% | Exeter City 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Mansfield Town 1.38 / Exeter City 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 1.048 / def 0.914 | Exeter City attack 1.026 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Exeter City xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mansfield Town vs Exeter City kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Exeter City kicked off at 15:01 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at One Call Stadium.
What was the final score in Mansfield Town vs Exeter City?
Mansfield Town 0 - 0 Exeter City.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Exeter City being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Exeter City part of?
Mansfield Town vs Exeter City is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Exeter City?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 45% chance of winning, Exeter City a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Exeter City?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Mansfield Town and Exeter City will score (BTTS).
Will Mansfield Town vs Exeter City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Exeter City?
Record (5 meetings): Mansfield Town 3W | Draws 0 | Exeter City 2W.
What form are Mansfield Town and Exeter City in?
Mansfield Town (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Exeter City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mansfield Town's attack at 1.05x the league average against Exeter City's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Exeter City's attack (1.03x) against Mansfield Town's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 73/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
45%
2.23
27%
3.70
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
2.42
1.04
Exeter City xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
7%
14.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Exeter City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Exeter City expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 1.04 for Exeter City, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Exeter City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mansfield Town's recent record stands at 25W 17D 31L from 73 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Exeter City, meanwhile, have gone 25W 15D 33L across 73 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-W-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Mansfield Town against 1.23 for Exeter City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mansfield Town have managed 14W 7D 15L from 36 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Exeter City's away record stands at 10W 7D 19L across 36 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Exeter City are on 1.11 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 73 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Blended
Exeter City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mansfield Town and Exeter City in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 25W 17D 31L in their last 73 games (1.26 PPG), while Exeter City have gone 25W 15D 33L in their last 73 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Exeter City away?
Mansfield Town's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 1.36 PPG; Exeter City away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Mansfield Town or Exeter City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mansfield Town have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Exeter City in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mansfield Town won 3-0 on 3 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mansfield Town have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Exeter City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Mansfield Town
1
Draws
2
Exeter City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Exeter City?
From 6 meetings on record, Mansfield Town have won 3, Exeter City have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Exeter City last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Mansfield Town 0-0 Exeter City.
Who has won more matches between Mansfield Town and Exeter City?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Exeter City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 58%, Exeter City 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Mansfield Town) and 44% (Exeter City).
On the defensive side: Exeter City in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Exeter City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mansfield Town play Exeter City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Mansfield Town's recent matches and 42% of Exeter City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mansfield Town vs Exeter City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Mansfield Town's recent games and 44% of Exeter City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mansfield Town and Exeter City tend to score early?
Mansfield Town have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Exeter City in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mansfield Town's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town and Exeter City finished level at 0-0 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.38 xG and Exeter City 1.04 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mansfield Town fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Exeter City landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 1.05 / defence 0.91 against Exeter City attack 1.03 / defence 0.97, drawn from 73/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 45% | Draw 27% | Exeter City 28%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 58%, Exeter City 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mansfield Town's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Exeter City's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mansfield Town 1.26 PPG, Exeter City 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Exeter City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.