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Poisson model rates Northampton at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Northampton vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Northampton host Stevenage at Sixfields Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:01 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Northampton stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 League One matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Northampton have posted 3W 2D 5L at Sixfields Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Northampton are significantly better at Sixfields Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all League One games this season, Stevenage have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Stevenage have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Northampton at 0.60 PPG versus Stevenage's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Northampton, 4 for Stevenage and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Stevenage winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Northampton in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Stevenage in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 50% versus Stevenage 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 46% | Stevenage 35%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.16 xG and Stevenage 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.821 / defence 1.067 | Stevenage attack 0.856 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.106. Data: 75 Northampton games / 74 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Northampton 39% | Draw 29% | Stevenage 32%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Stevenage 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Northampton at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Northampton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Northampton 60% | Stevenage 40%.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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