🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Bradford at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bradford vs Stockport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Bradford host Stockport County at Valley Parade in League One, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Guide

Bradford — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Bradford at Valley Parade this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Valley Parade. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Bradford are significantly better at Valley Parade than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Stockport County stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in League One this season, Stockport County have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Bradford) versus 1.80 (Stockport County). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Bradford, 1 for Stockport County and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Bradford winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Bradford in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).

Stockport County in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 54% versus Stockport County 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 50% | Stockport County 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.02 xG and Stockport County 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.925 / defence 0.800 | Stockport County attack 1.007 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.151. Stockport County's defence strength of 0.795 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 30 Bradford games / 76 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bradford 37% | Draw 31% | Stockport County 32%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Stockport County 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bradford are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bradford 40% | Stockport County 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights