Port Vale 2-2 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port Vale vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Burton Albion travel to Vale Park to take on Port Vale. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026, 12:31 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Port Vale have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Port Vale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port Vale at Vale Park this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burton Albion stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 League One matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Burton Albion away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Port Vale) versus 0.80 (Burton Albion). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Port Vale, 2 for Burton Albion and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Port Vale trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Burton Albion trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 41% versus Burton Albion 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 42% | Burton Albion 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.18 xG and Burton Albion 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.746 / defence 1.235 | Burton Albion attack 0.898 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.101. Port Vale's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Port Vale games / 75 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 35% | Draw 28% | Burton Albion 37%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Burton Albion 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burton Albion at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burton Albion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Port Vale 40% | Burton Albion 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 12:31 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 35% | Draw 28% | Burton Albion 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Port Vale 1.18 / Burton Albion 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.746 / def 1.235 | Burton Albion attack 0.898 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Burton Albion xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Burton Albion kick off?
Port Vale vs Burton Albion kicked off at 12:31 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Burton Albion?
Port Vale 2 - 2 Burton Albion.
Where is Port Vale vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Burton Albion part of?
Port Vale vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 35% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Port Vale and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Burton Albion?
Record (5 meetings): Port Vale 2W | Draws 1 | Burton Albion 2W.
What form are Port Vale and Burton Albion in?
Port Vale (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Port Vale's attack at 0.75x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Port Vale's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
35%
2.85
28%
3.61
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.40
1.22
Burton Albion xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
10%
9.66
11%
8.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.1 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.22 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 73 outings, Port Vale have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 27W 20D 26L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Port Vale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burton Albion's form line: 19W 20D 34L from 73 games, 1.05 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port Vale on 1.38 PPG, Burton Albion on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Port Vale have posted 1.44 PPG from 36 outings (14W 10D 12L).
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 8W 11D 17L from 36 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Port Vale are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.03 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 73 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Blended
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 27W 20D 26L in their last 73 games (1.38 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 19W 20D 34L in their last 73 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Burton Albion away?
Port Vale's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.44 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Port Vale and Burton Albion runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Port Vale's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Port Vale
2
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Burton Albion?
From 6 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 2, Burton Albion have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Port Vale 2-2 Burton Albion.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Burton Albion see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 42%, Burton Albion 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Port Vale) and 47% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Burton Albion in 31%; Port Vale have failed to score in 42% of games; Burton Albion in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Port Vale's recent matches and 47% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port Vale vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Port Vale's recent games and 47% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Port Vale and Burton Albion share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vale Park, Regular Season - 31, as Port Vale and Burton Albion drew 2-2 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.18 xG and Burton Albion 1.22 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Port Vale beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.75 / defence 1.24 against Burton Albion attack 0.90 / defence 1.17, drawn from 27/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 35% | Draw 28% | Burton Albion 37%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 42%, Burton Albion 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Burton Albion's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.38 PPG, Burton Albion 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Port Vale (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.