🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port Vale vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A League One encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Burton Albion travel to Vale Park to take on Port Vale. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026, 12:31 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all League One games this season, Port Vale have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Port Vale, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Port Vale at Vale Park this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Burton Albion stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 League One matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Burton Albion away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Port Vale) versus 0.80 (Burton Albion). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Port Vale, 2 for Burton Albion and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Port Vale trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Burton Albion trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 41% versus Burton Albion 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 42% | Burton Albion 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.18 xG and Burton Albion 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.746 / defence 1.235 | Burton Albion attack 0.898 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.101. Port Vale's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Port Vale games / 75 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Port Vale 35% | Draw 28% | Burton Albion 37%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Burton Albion 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Burton Albion at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burton Albion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Port Vale 40% | Burton Albion 60%.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights