Derby 2-2 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Shrewsbury fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Shrewsbury travel to Pride Park Stadium to take on Derby. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 March 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 League One matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Derby have posted 8W 2D 0L at Pride Park Stadium — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pride Park Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League One games this season, Shrewsbury have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Shrewsbury's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Derby) versus 2.20 (Shrewsbury). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Derby's 30% rate and Shrewsbury's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Derby, 0 for Shrewsbury and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Derby in-play tendencies (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Shrewsbury in-play tendencies (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 48% versus Shrewsbury 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 43% | Shrewsbury 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.30 xG and Shrewsbury 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.352 / defence 0.758 | Shrewsbury attack 0.880 / defence 0.747. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.082. Derby carry an above-average attack strength of 1.352 — their λ of 1.30 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shrewsbury's defence strength of 0.747 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Derby's defence rating of 0.758 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 Derby games / 79 Shrewsbury games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 50% | Draw 30% | Shrewsbury 20%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Shrewsbury 5.00. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Derby 30% | Shrewsbury 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 50% | Draw 30% | Shrewsbury 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 38% | xG Derby 1.30 / Shrewsbury 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.352 / def 0.758 | Shrewsbury attack 0.880 / def 0.747 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Derby (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Shrewsbury xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Derby vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Shrewsbury?
Derby 2 - 2 Shrewsbury.
Where is Derby vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Shrewsbury part of?
Derby vs Shrewsbury is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 50% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Derby and Shrewsbury will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Shrewsbury?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 1 | Shrewsbury 0W.
What form are Derby and Shrewsbury in?
Derby (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Shrewsbury (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Derby's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Shrewsbury's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Shrewsbury's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/79 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
50%
2.02
30%
3.29
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Derby xG
Total xG
2.02
0.72
Shrewsbury xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
5%
18.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.4 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Derby and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Derby and 0.72 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Shrewsbury?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby's recent record stands at 31W 22D 26L from 79 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Shrewsbury, meanwhile, have gone 27W 20D 32L across 79 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.46 PPG, Shrewsbury on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Derby have managed 23W 9D 7L from 39 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shrewsbury's away record stands at 9W 11D 19L across 39 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 1.11 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 79 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Shrewsbury
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 31W 22D 26L in their last 79 games (1.46 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 27W 20D 32L in their last 79 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Shrewsbury away?
Derby's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 2.00 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Derby or Shrewsbury been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Shrewsbury in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Derby's record when hosting Shrewsbury specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Derby
3
Draws
1
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Shrewsbury?
From 4 meetings on record, Derby have won 0, Shrewsbury have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Shrewsbury last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Derby 1-1 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Shrewsbury?
Shrewsbury have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Shrewsbury see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 51%, Shrewsbury 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Derby) and 31% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Shrewsbury in 36%; Shrewsbury in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Shrewsbury?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Derby's recent matches and 36% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Shrewsbury usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Derby's recent games and 31% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Shrewsbury tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Shrewsbury in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby and Shrewsbury share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby and Shrewsbury finished level at 2-2 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.30 xG and Shrewsbury 0.72 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Shrewsbury outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.35 / defence 0.76 against Shrewsbury attack 0.88 / defence 0.75, drawn from 33/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 50% | Draw 30% | Shrewsbury 20%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 43%, Shrewsbury 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.46 PPG, Shrewsbury 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.