Accrington ST 0-3 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Accrington ST at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Accrington ST vs Lincoln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 30 as Accrington ST welcome Lincoln to Wham Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Accrington ST have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Accrington ST have posted 3W 3D 4L at Wham Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Lincoln — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lincoln's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Accrington ST at 0.90 PPG versus Lincoln's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Accrington ST, 0 for Lincoln and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Accrington ST in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 52% versus Lincoln 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 54% | Lincoln 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.42 xG and Lincoln 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.975 / defence 1.055 | Lincoln attack 0.745 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.119. Data: 71 Accrington ST games / 72 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 49% | Draw 28% | Lincoln 23%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Lincoln 4.35. Accrington ST hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Accrington ST as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Accrington ST offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 40% | Lincoln 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 49% | Draw 28% | Lincoln 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Accrington ST 1.42 / Lincoln 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.975 / def 1.055 | Lincoln attack 0.745 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Lincoln xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Lincoln kick off?
Accrington ST vs Lincoln kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Lincoln?
Accrington ST 0 - 3 Lincoln.
Where is Accrington ST vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Lincoln part of?
Accrington ST vs Lincoln is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 49% chance of winning, Lincoln a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Accrington ST and Lincoln will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Lincoln?
Record (3 meetings): Accrington ST 2W | Draws 1 | Lincoln 0W.
What form are Accrington ST and Lincoln in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Lincoln (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Accrington ST's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Lincoln's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Lincoln's attack versus Accrington ST's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
49%
2.04
28%
3.56
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.30
0.88
Lincoln xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
6%
18.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Accrington ST and 0.88 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Accrington ST's recent record stands at 23W 17D 31L from 71 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lincoln, meanwhile, have gone 20W 22D 29L across 71 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Accrington ST on 1.21 PPG, Lincoln on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Accrington ST have managed 15W 11D 9L from 35 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lincoln's away record stands at 11W 6D 18L across 35 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Accrington ST come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Accrington ST are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.10 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 71 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Blended
Lincoln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 23W 17D 31L in their last 71 games (1.21 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 20W 22D 29L in their last 71 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Lincoln away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.60 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2023, when Lincoln won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Accrington ST's record when hosting Lincoln specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Accrington ST
1
Draws
1
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Lincoln?
From 4 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 2, Lincoln have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Lincoln last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Accrington ST 0-3 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Lincoln?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 63%, Lincoln 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Accrington ST) and 51% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Lincoln in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Lincoln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Accrington ST's games and 51% of Lincoln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Accrington ST vs Lincoln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Accrington ST's recent games and 51% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Lincoln tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Lincoln in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lincoln run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Accrington ST.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln beat Accrington ST 0-3 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.42 xG and Lincoln 0.88 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Accrington ST fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Lincoln outscored their 0.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.97 / defence 1.05 against Lincoln attack 0.74 / defence 1.10, drawn from 71/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 49% | Draw 28% | Lincoln 23%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Lincoln win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 54%, Lincoln 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lincoln's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.21 PPG, Lincoln 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lincoln win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lincoln (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.51 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.