Charlton 6-0 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Shrewsbury fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 39 sees Shrewsbury travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 April 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Charlton — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at The Valley, Charlton have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Shrewsbury have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in League One this season, Shrewsbury have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shrewsbury are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Charlton, 1 for Shrewsbury and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Charlton winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Charlton in-play tendencies (83 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Shrewsbury in-play tendencies (83 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 55% versus Shrewsbury 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 46% | Shrewsbury 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.11 xG and Shrewsbury 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.971 / defence 1.098 | Shrewsbury attack 0.882 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.111. Data: 84 Charlton games / 83 Shrewsbury games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 36% | Draw 29% | Shrewsbury 34%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Shrewsbury 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shrewsbury (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Charlton 70% | Shrewsbury 30%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 36% | Draw 29% | Shrewsbury 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Charlton 1.11 / Shrewsbury 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.971 / def 1.098 | Shrewsbury attack 0.882 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Charlton (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Shrewsbury xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Charlton vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Shrewsbury?
Charlton 6 - 0 Shrewsbury.
Where is Charlton vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Shrewsbury part of?
Charlton vs Shrewsbury is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 36% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Charlton and Shrewsbury will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Shrewsbury?
Record (3 meetings): Charlton 2W | Draws 0 | Shrewsbury 1W.
What form are Charlton and Shrewsbury in?
Charlton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Shrewsbury (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Charlton's attack at 0.97x the league average against Shrewsbury's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shrewsbury's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 84/83 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
36%
2.76
29%
3.39
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.19
1.08
Shrewsbury xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
11%
8.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Charlton and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Charlton and 1.08 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Shrewsbury?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 83 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 29W 20D 34L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Shrewsbury's form line: 28W 21D 34L from 83 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.29 PPG, Shrewsbury on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.41 PPG from 41 outings (16W 10D 15L).
On the road, Shrewsbury have gone 9W 12D 20L from 41 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 1.13 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 83 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Shrewsbury
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 29W 20D 34L in their last 83 games (1.29 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 28W 21D 34L in their last 83 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Shrewsbury away?
Charlton's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.41 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charlton and Shrewsbury runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charlton have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Apr 2023, when Charlton won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charlton's record when hosting Shrewsbury specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Charlton
2
Draws
1
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Shrewsbury?
From 8 meetings on record, Charlton have won 5, Shrewsbury have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Shrewsbury last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Charlton 1-0 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Shrewsbury?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 51%, Shrewsbury 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Charlton) and 34% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Shrewsbury in 34%; Shrewsbury in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Shrewsbury?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Charlton's recent matches and 39% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Shrewsbury usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Charlton's recent games and 34% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Shrewsbury tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Shrewsbury in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Charlton run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Shrewsbury.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Shrewsbury 6-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 39, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.11 xG and Shrewsbury 1.08 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Charlton beat their projection by 4.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shrewsbury landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.97 / defence 1.10 against Shrewsbury attack 0.88 / defence 0.87, drawn from 84/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 36% | Draw 29% | Shrewsbury 34%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 46%, Shrewsbury 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.29 PPG, Shrewsbury 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.51 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.