Port Vale 0-2 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Port Vale at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port Vale vs Cambridge United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Port Vale host Cambridge United at Vale Park in League One, Regular Season - 39. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Port Vale have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Port Vale's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Vale Park this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cambridge United — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Cambridge United away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Port Vale at 0.90 PPG versus Cambridge United's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Port Vale have won 1, Cambridge United 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Port Vale winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Port Vale in-play tendencies (83 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Cambridge United in-play tendencies (83 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 52% versus Cambridge United 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 48% | Cambridge United 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.26 xG and Cambridge United 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.749 / defence 1.292 | Cambridge United attack 0.609 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.111. Port Vale's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cambridge United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Port Vale's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Port Vale games / 83 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 45% | Draw 29% | Cambridge United 26%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Cambridge United 3.85. Port Vale hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port Vale at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port Vale offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Port Vale 40% | Cambridge United 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 45% | Draw 29% | Cambridge United 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Port Vale 1.26 / Cambridge United 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.749 / def 1.292 | Cambridge United attack 0.609 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Cambridge United xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Cambridge United kick off?
Port Vale vs Cambridge United kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Cambridge United?
Port Vale 0 - 2 Cambridge United.
Where is Port Vale vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Cambridge United part of?
Port Vale vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 45% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Port Vale and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Cambridge United?
Record (1 meetings): Port Vale 1W | Draws 0 | Cambridge United 0W.
What form are Port Vale and Cambridge United in?
Port Vale (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Cambridge United (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Port Vale's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Cambridge United's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Cambridge United's attack versus Port Vale's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/83 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
45%
2.21
29%
3.43
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.14
0.88
Cambridge United xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
7%
13.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 10.3 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.0 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Port Vale and 0.88 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Port Vale come into this having played 83 games, going 36W 18D 29L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, Cambridge United sit at 1.06 PPG from 83 outings (23W 19D 41L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Port Vale carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Cambridge United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Port Vale's home form reads 19W 8D 14L across 41 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambridge United have taken 0.83 points per game from 41 outings (9W 7D 25L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Port Vale are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 1.01 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 83 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Current Season
Cambridge United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 36W 18D 29L in their last 83 games (1.52 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 23W 19D 41L in their last 83 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Cambridge United away?
Port Vale's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.59 PPG; Cambridge United away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Cambridge United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cambridge United in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Port Vale's record when hosting Cambridge United specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Port Vale
2
Draws
1
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Cambridge United?
From 4 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 1, Cambridge United have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Port Vale 0-0 Cambridge United.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 49%, Cambridge United 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Port Vale) and 54% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Cambridge United in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Port Vale's recent matches and 51% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port Vale vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Port Vale's recent games and 54% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Port Vale have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambridge United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Port Vale.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambridge United beat Port Vale 0-2 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 39, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.26 xG and Cambridge United 0.88 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Port Vale fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Cambridge United outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.75 / defence 1.29 against Cambridge United attack 0.61 / defence 1.28, drawn from 38/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 45% | Draw 29% | Cambridge United 26%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Cambridge United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 48%, Cambridge United 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Cambridge United's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Port Vale arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Cambridge United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.98 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.