Bristol Rovers 1-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Charlton at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bristol Rovers vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 40 sees Charlton travel to Memorial Stadium to take on Bristol Rovers. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 April 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Bristol Rovers have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Bristol Rovers at Memorial Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Charlton's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Charlton are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bristol Rovers, 0 for Charlton and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2022, ended 2–1 with Bristol Rovers winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bristol Rovers in-play tendencies (83 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Charlton in-play tendencies (83 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bristol Rovers 54% versus Charlton 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bristol Rovers 51% | Charlton 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bristol Rovers 0.85 xG and Charlton 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bristol Rovers attack 0.674 / defence 1.265 | Charlton attack 1.085 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.109. Bristol Rovers's attack strength of 0.674 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Bristol Rovers games / 85 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bristol Rovers 21% | Draw 27% | Charlton 53%. Fair-value odds: Bristol Rovers 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | Charlton 1.89. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Bristol Rovers 30% | Charlton 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bristol Rovers vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: Memorial Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bristol Rovers 21% | Draw 27% | Charlton 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Bristol Rovers 0.85 / Charlton 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Bristol Rovers attack 0.674 / def 1.265 | Charlton attack 1.085 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Charlton (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Bristol Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Charlton xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bristol Rovers vs Charlton kick off?
Bristol Rovers vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 7 April 2023 at Memorial Stadium.
What was the final score in Bristol Rovers vs Charlton?
Bristol Rovers 1 - 0 Charlton.
Where is Bristol Rovers vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Memorial Stadium.
What competition is Bristol Rovers vs Charlton part of?
Bristol Rovers vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bristol Rovers vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Bristol Rovers a 21% chance of winning, Charlton a 53% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bristol Rovers vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bristol Rovers and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Bristol Rovers vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bristol Rovers and Charlton?
Record (1 meetings): Bristol Rovers 1W | Draws 0 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Bristol Rovers and Charlton in?
Bristol Rovers (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Charlton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bristol Rovers's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Bristol Rovers's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/85 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
21%
4.84
27%
3.75
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Bristol Rovers xG
Total xG
2.37
1.52
Charlton xG
4.84
21%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
5%
22.19
23%
4.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 14.2 | 10.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bristol Rovers vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Bristol Rovers and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Bristol Rovers and 1.52 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Bristol Rovers vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 83 outings, Bristol Rovers have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 35W 20D 28L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Charlton's form line: 30W 20D 33L from 83 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bristol Rovers on 1.51 PPG, Charlton on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bristol Rovers have posted 1.63 PPG from 41 outings (19W 10D 12L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 13W 10D 18L from 41 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bristol Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bristol Rovers are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.36 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 83 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bristol Rovers
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bristol Rovers and Charlton in coming into this match?
Bristol Rovers have gone 35W 20D 28L in their last 83 games (1.51 PPG), while Charlton have gone 30W 20D 33L in their last 83 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bristol Rovers at home or Charlton away?
Bristol Rovers's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bristol Rovers at home: 1.63 PPG; Charlton away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Bristol Rovers or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bristol Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Charlton in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bristol Rovers and Charlton runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bristol Rovers's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Bristol Rovers
0
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bristol Rovers and Charlton?
From 6 meetings on record, Bristol Rovers have won 5, Charlton have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bristol Rovers and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2025, when Charlton 2-0 Bristol Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Bristol Rovers and Charlton?
Bristol Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bristol Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bristol Rovers 46%, Charlton 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Bristol Rovers) and 49% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Bristol Rovers keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bristol Rovers home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bristol Rovers play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Bristol Rovers's recent matches and 58% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bristol Rovers vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Bristol Rovers's recent games and 49% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bristol Rovers and Charlton tend to score early?
Bristol Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Charlton in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bristol Rovers defy the odds to beat Charlton 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bristol Rovers beat Charlton 1-0 at Memorial Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol Rovers 0.85 xG and Charlton 1.52 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Charlton landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol Rovers attack 0.67 / defence 1.26 against Charlton attack 1.08 / defence 0.95, drawn from 37/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bristol Rovers 21% | Draw 27% | Charlton 53%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Bristol Rovers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol Rovers 51%, Charlton 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bristol Rovers's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charlton's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bristol Rovers 1.51 PPG, Charlton 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bristol Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Bristol Rovers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.