Shrewsbury 0-3 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Peterborough at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shrewsbury vs Peterborough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Peterborough make the trip to Montgomery Waters Meadow to face Shrewsbury in League One, Regular Season - 40. The match kicks off on Friday 7 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shrewsbury have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shrewsbury have posted 7W 0D 3L at Montgomery Waters Meadow — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Shrewsbury are significantly better at Montgomery Waters Meadow than their overall form suggests.
Peterborough's overall League One record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Peterborough have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Peterborough are 0.60 PPG clear of Shrewsbury in recent League One fixtures (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Shrewsbury, 1 for Peterborough and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2023, ended 1–2 with Peterborough winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Shrewsbury goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (84 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Peterborough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (84 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 44% versus Peterborough 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 43% | Peterborough 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.52 xG and Peterborough 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 1.240 / defence 1.110 | Peterborough attack 1.335 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.109. Peterborough have an above-average attack strength of 1.335 — the away xG of 1.64 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 84 Shrewsbury games / 39 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 35% | Draw 24% | Peterborough 41%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Peterborough 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Peterborough as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. This conflicts with form data: Shrewsbury 50% | Peterborough 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: Montgomery Waters Meadow • Kick-off: Friday 7 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 35% | Draw 24% | Peterborough 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Shrewsbury 1.52 / Peterborough 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 1.240 / def 1.110 | Peterborough attack 1.335 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Peterborough xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Peterborough kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Peterborough kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 7 April 2023 at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Peterborough?
Shrewsbury 0 - 3 Peterborough.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Peterborough part of?
Shrewsbury vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 35% chance of winning, Peterborough a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Shrewsbury and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Peterborough?
Record (1 meetings): Shrewsbury 0W | Draws 0 | Peterborough 1W.
What form are Shrewsbury and Peterborough in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Peterborough (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shrewsbury's attack at 1.24x the league average against Peterborough's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Peterborough's attack (1.33x) against Shrewsbury's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 84/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
35%
2.84
24%
4.14
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
3.16
1.64
Peterborough xG
2.84
35%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
19%
5.18
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
7%
14.70
9%
11.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.6 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.64 for Peterborough, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 84 outings, Shrewsbury have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 28W 21D 35L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Peterborough's form line: 29W 14D 41L from 84 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Shrewsbury against 1.20 for Peterborough. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shrewsbury have posted 1.61 PPG from 41 outings (19W 9D 13L).
On the road, Peterborough have gone 11W 4D 26L from 41 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shrewsbury come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shrewsbury are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.29 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 84 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Peterborough
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 28W 21D 35L in their last 84 games (1.25 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 29W 14D 41L in their last 84 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Peterborough away?
Shrewsbury's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.61 PPG; Peterborough away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since March 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Peterborough have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won 0-3 on 7 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shrewsbury have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Peterborough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Shrewsbury
0
Draws
6
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Peterborough?
From 6 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 0, Peterborough have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Peterborough 3-1 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Peterborough?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 51%, Peterborough 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Shrewsbury) and 61% (Peterborough). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury have failed to score in 32% of games; Peterborough in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Peterborough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 46% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shrewsbury vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 51% of Shrewsbury's matches and 61% of Peterborough's.
Do Shrewsbury and Peterborough tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Peterborough run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Shrewsbury.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Shrewsbury 0-3 at Montgomery Waters Meadow, Regular Season - 40, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.52 xG and Peterborough 1.64 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Shrewsbury fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Peterborough outscored their 1.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 1.24 / defence 1.11 against Peterborough attack 1.33 / defence 0.93, drawn from 84/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 35% | Draw 24% | Peterborough 41%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 43%, Peterborough 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (84 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Peterborough's trading profile (84 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 1.25 PPG, Peterborough 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.