Charlton 1-1 Wycombe – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Wycombe at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Wycombe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Wycombe travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 March 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Charlton at The Valley this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Wycombe have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Wycombe's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Wycombe are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Charlton, 2 for Wycombe and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Charlton trading profile (83 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Wycombe trading profile (83 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 54% versus Wycombe 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 46% | Wycombe 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.04 xG and Wycombe 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.012 / defence 1.104 | Wycombe attack 1.022 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.131. Data: 83 Charlton games / 83 Wycombe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 30% | Draw 29% | Wycombe 41%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Wycombe 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wycombe as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wycombe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 70% | Wycombe 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Wycombe | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Mar 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 30% | Draw 29% | Wycombe 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Charlton 1.04 / Wycombe 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.012 / def 1.104 | Wycombe attack 1.022 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Wycombe (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Wycombe xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Wycombe kick off?
Charlton vs Wycombe kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 March 2023 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Wycombe?
Charlton 1 - 1 Wycombe.
Where is Charlton vs Wycombe being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Wycombe part of?
Charlton vs Wycombe is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Wycombe?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 30% chance of winning, Wycombe a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Wycombe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Wycombe?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Charlton and Wycombe will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Wycombe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Wycombe?
Record (3 meetings): Charlton 0W | Draws 1 | Wycombe 2W.
What form are Charlton and Wycombe in?
Charlton (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Wycombe (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Charlton's attack at 1.01x the league average against Wycombe's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wycombe's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 83/83 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wycombe Win
30%
3.33
29%
3.49
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.32
1.28
Wycombe xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
8%
11.96
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Wycombe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Charlton and Wycombe expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Charlton and 1.28 for Wycombe, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Wycombe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charlton come into this having played 83 games, going 29W 20D 34L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Wycombe sit at 1.67 PPG from 83 outings (40W 19D 24L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.29 PPG, Wycombe on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Charlton's home form reads 16W 10D 15L across 41 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Wycombe have taken 1.41 points per game from 41 outings (16W 10D 15L).
Goals in Recent Form
Charlton are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Wycombe are on 1.46 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Wycombe in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 83 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Wycombe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Wycombe in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 29W 20D 34L in their last 83 games (1.29 PPG), while Wycombe have gone 40W 19D 24L in their last 83 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Wycombe away?
Charlton's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.41 PPG; Wycombe away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Charlton or Wycombe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Wycombe in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2025, when Charlton won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charlton's record when hosting Wycombe specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Charlton
3
Draws
3
Wycombe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Wycombe?
From 10 meetings on record, Charlton have won 4, Wycombe have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Wycombe last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2025, when Charlton 1-0 Wycombe.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Wycombe?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Wycombe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 49%, Wycombe 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Charlton) and 44% (Wycombe).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Wycombe in 39%; Wycombe in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Wycombe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Wycombe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Charlton's recent matches and 42% of Wycombe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Wycombe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Charlton's recent games and 44% of Wycombe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Wycombe tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Wycombe in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton and Wycombe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Valley, Regular Season - 38, as Charlton and Wycombe drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.04 xG and Wycombe 1.28 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.01 / defence 1.10 against Wycombe attack 1.02 / defence 0.81, drawn from 83/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 30% | Draw 29% | Wycombe 41%, with Wycombe to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 46%, Wycombe 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Wycombe's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.29 PPG, Wycombe 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.