Sheffield Wednesday 1-1 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sheffield Wednesday at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 39 as Sheffield Wednesday welcome Lincoln to Hillsborough. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sheffield Wednesday — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Sheffield Wednesday's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Hillsborough this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Hillsborough. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Sheffield Wednesday are significantly better at Hillsborough than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Lincoln have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Lincoln's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Sheffield Wednesday have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Sheffield Wednesday have won 0, Lincoln 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sheffield Wednesday in-play and half-time data (83 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (83 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Wednesday 47% versus Lincoln 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Wednesday 43% | Lincoln 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Wednesday 1.79 xG and Lincoln 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.352 / defence 0.707 | Lincoln attack 0.844 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.111. Sheffield Wednesday carry an above-average attack strength of 1.352 — their λ of 1.79 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sheffield Wednesday's defence rating of 0.707 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 84 Sheffield Wednesday games / 83 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 64% | Draw 23% | Lincoln 13%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Wednesday 1.56 | Draw 4.35 | Lincoln 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Sheffield Wednesday (64%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sheffield Wednesday at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sheffield Wednesday 20% | Lincoln 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: Hillsborough • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 64% | Draw 23% | Lincoln 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 40% | xG Sheffield Wednesday 1.79 / Lincoln 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.352 / def 0.707 | Lincoln attack 0.844 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Wednesday (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Lincoln xG
40%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln kick off?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Hillsborough.
What was the final score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln?
Sheffield Wednesday 1 - 1 Lincoln.
Where is Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at Hillsborough.
What competition is Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln part of?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Wednesday a 64% chance of winning, Lincoln a 13% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Wednesday the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Sheffield Wednesday and Lincoln will score (BTTS).
Will Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Lincoln?
Record (3 meetings): Sheffield Wednesday 0W | Draws 2 | Lincoln 1W.
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Lincoln in?
Sheffield Wednesday (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Lincoln (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sheffield Wednesday's attack rating (1.35) and Lincoln's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lincoln's attack versus Sheffield Wednesday's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 84/83 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.8%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Wednesday Win
64%
1.56
23%
4.44
13%
7.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Total xG
2.45
0.66
Lincoln xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
7.58
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
51%
1.94
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
33%
3.02
2%
45.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 10.2 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Sheffield Wednesday and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 0.66 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 83 outings, Sheffield Wednesday have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 45W 23D 15L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Lincoln's form line: 23W 28D 32L from 83 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Sheffield Wednesday are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lincoln.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sheffield Wednesday have posted 2.24 PPG from 41 outings (27W 11D 3L).
On the road, Lincoln have gone 12W 9D 20L from 41 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sheffield Wednesday come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sheffield Wednesday are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.07 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Sheffield Wednesday have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 83 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Wednesday
Current Season
Lincoln
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Sheffield Wednesday have gone 45W 23D 15L in their last 83 games (1.90 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 23W 28D 32L in their last 83 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Wednesday at home or Lincoln away?
Sheffield Wednesday's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Wednesday at home: 2.24 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Sheffield Wednesday or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sheffield Wednesday have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Lincoln in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sheffield Wednesday and Lincoln runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Sheffield Wednesday's record when hosting Lincoln specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sheffield Wednesday
3
Draws
1
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Lincoln?
From 4 meetings on record, Sheffield Wednesday have won 0, Lincoln have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Wednesday and Lincoln last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Sheffield Wednesday 1-1 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Wednesday and Lincoln?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Wednesday 49%, Lincoln 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sheffield Wednesday) and 51% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Sheffield Wednesday keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Lincoln in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Wednesday home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sheffield Wednesday play Lincoln?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent matches and 54% of Lincoln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent games and 51% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sheffield Wednesday and Lincoln tend to score early?
Sheffield Wednesday have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Lincoln in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sheffield Wednesday and Lincoln share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Wednesday and Lincoln finished level at 1-1 at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 39, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 1.79 xG and Lincoln 0.66 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.35 / defence 0.71 against Lincoln attack 0.84 / defence 1.00, drawn from 84/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 64% | Draw 23% | Lincoln 13%, with Sheffield Wednesday to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 43%, Lincoln 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Lincoln's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sheffield Wednesday arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.