Burton Albion 3-0 Stockport County – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Stockport County (41%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Burton Albion face Stockport County.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Burton Albion and Stockport County meet at Pirelli Stadium in League One (matchday 32). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time.

Current Form

Burton Albion's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Burton Albion have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Stockport County (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, Stockport County have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Stockport County arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Stockport County have the stronger record — 3 wins to Burton Albion's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2025, ended Burton Albion 1–2 Stockport County — a Stockport County win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Stockport County have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading & In-Play

Burton Albion — key trading statistics (last 78 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Stockport County — key trading statistics (last 78 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 51% versus Stockport County 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 54% | Stockport County 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Burton Albion surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Stockport County have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.04 xG and Stockport County 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.915 / defence 1.127 | Stockport County attack 0.947 / defence 0.790. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.150. Stockport County bring a tight defence (rating 0.790, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Burton Albion's projected output down. Data: built from Burton Albion's last 78 games and Stockport County's last 78.

Result probabilities: Burton Albion 31% | Draw 28% | Stockport County 41%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 3.22 | Draw 3.51 | Stockport County 2.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Burton Albion 40% (last 10 home games) | Stockport County 40% (last 10 away games).

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