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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Stockport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Stevenage and Stockport County meet at Lamex Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

Stevenage's overall League One record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Stevenage have posted 3W 6D 1L at Lamex Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Stockport County (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Stockport County's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Stockport County arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Stevenage, 2 for Stockport County and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 3–1 with Stevenage winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Stevenage — key trading statistics (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Stockport County — key trading statistics (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 44% versus Stockport County 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 37% | Stockport County 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.07 xG and Stockport County 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.820 / defence 0.745 | Stockport County attack 0.871 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.147. Stevenage's defence rating of 0.745 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 78 Stevenage games / 79 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Stevenage 43% | Draw 32% | Stockport County 25%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Stockport County 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Stockport County's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Stockport County (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 50% | Stockport County 30% BTTS from recent games.

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