🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Bradford at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bradford vs Peterborough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A League One encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Peterborough travel to Valley Parade to take on Bradford. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026, 15:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Bradford stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 League One matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Bradford have posted 6W 2D 2L at Valley Parade — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Valley Parade. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bradford are significantly better at Valley Parade than their overall form suggests.

Across all League One games this season, Peterborough have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Peterborough's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bradford 1.20 PPG, Peterborough 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bradford, 0 for Peterborough and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Bradford trading profile (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).

Peterborough trading profile (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 55% versus Peterborough 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 51% | Peterborough 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.18 xG and Peterborough 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.876 / defence 0.883 | Peterborough attack 1.115 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.137. Data: 29 Bradford games / 77 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bradford 37% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 34%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Peterborough 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bradford 40% | Peterborough 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights