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Poisson rates Stockport County at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Wigan encounter.

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Match Analysis

Stockport County host Wigan at Edgeley Park in League One, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Stockport County — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

At home at Edgeley Park, Stockport County have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Wigan stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 League One matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Wigan's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Stockport County carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Stockport County register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Wigan in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Stockport County, 0 for Wigan and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Stockport County trading profile (77 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Wigan trading profile (77 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 57% versus Wigan 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stockport County 46% | Wigan 31%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.75 xG and Wigan 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 0.976 / defence 1.037 | Wigan attack 1.007 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.128. Wigan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Stockport County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 77 Stockport County games / 77 Wigan games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Stockport County 51% | Draw 24% | Wigan 26%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Wigan 3.85. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 60% | Wigan 70% BTTS from recent games.

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