🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Exeter City at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Exeter City vs Northampton encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Exeter City host Northampton at St James Park in League One, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Exeter City stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters this season, Exeter City have posted 5W 2D 3L at St James Park — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at St James Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Northampton — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in League One this season, Northampton have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Exeter City are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Northampton, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Exeter City.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Northampton winning.

It is worth noting that Northampton have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

Exeter City in-play tendencies (75 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Northampton in-play tendencies (75 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 43% versus Northampton 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Exeter City 44% | Northampton 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 1.51 xG and Northampton 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 0.959 / defence 0.960 | Northampton attack 0.793 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.137. Data: 75 Exeter City games / 76 Northampton games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Exeter City 53% | Draw 26% | Northampton 21%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Northampton 4.76. Exeter City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

Northampton lead the H2H ledger, but Exeter City carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

On the Poisson output, Exeter City are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Exeter City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Exeter City 20% | Northampton 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights