Burton Albion 1-0 Rotherham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rotherham at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Burton Albion face Rotherham.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Rotherham travel to Pirelli Stadium to take on Burton Albion in League One (matchday 33). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Burton Albion have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Burton Albion have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Burton Albion are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Rotherham stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Rotherham's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Burton Albion 0.80 PPG, Rotherham 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Burton Albion, 1 for Rotherham and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2025, ended Burton Albion 2–2 Rotherham — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Burton Albion in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Rotherham in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 45%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 51% versus Rotherham 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 55% | Rotherham 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.45 xG and Rotherham 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.966 / defence 1.233 | Rotherham attack 1.021 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.151. Burton Albion's defence rating of 1.233 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rotherham's projected output up. Data: built from Burton Albion's last 76 games and Rotherham's last 75.
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 38% | Draw 25% | Rotherham 38%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.67 | Draw 4.03 | Rotherham 2.65. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 38% to win, with the draw at 25%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Burton Albion 38% and Rotherham 38%, with the draw at 25%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Burton Albion's last 10 home games and Rotherham's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Burton Albion 40% (last 10 home games) | Rotherham 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Rotherham | Competition: League One, matchday 33 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 38% | Draw 25% | Rotherham 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Burton Albion 1.45 / Rotherham 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.966 / def 1.233 | Rotherham attack 1.021 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Burton Albion and Rotherham level at 38% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Rotherham xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burton Albion vs Rotherham FAQs
What time does Burton Albion vs Rotherham kick off?
Burton Albion vs Rotherham kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Rotherham?
Burton Albion 1 - 0 Rotherham.
Where is Burton Albion vs Rotherham being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Rotherham part of?
Burton Albion vs Rotherham is a League One fixture (matchday 33) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Rotherham?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 38% chance of winning, Rotherham a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Rotherham?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Burton Albion and Rotherham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Burton Albion vs Rotherham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Burton Albion's attack rating (0.97) and Rotherham's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rotherham's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Burton Albion's last 76 games and Rotherham's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rotherham Win
38%
2.67
25%
4.03
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.89
1.45
Rotherham xG
2.67
38%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
9%
11.35
9%
11.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.6 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burton Albion vs Rotherham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Rotherham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Rotherham expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.45 for Rotherham, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Rotherham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Burton Albion come into this having played 75 games, going 19W 22D 34L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, Rotherham sit at 1.20 PPG from 75 outings (24W 18D 33L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burton Albion on 1.05 PPG, Rotherham on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Burton Albion's home form reads 11W 9D 17L across their last 37 home games, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Rotherham have taken 0.86 points per game from their last 37 away games (8W 8D 21L).
The Goals Picture
Burton Albion are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Rotherham are on 1.13 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
Rotherham
Current Season
Burton Albion (Home) vs Rotherham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burton Albion
Current Season
Rotherham
Current Season
❓ Burton Albion vs Rotherham Form FAQs
What form are Burton Albion and Rotherham in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 19W 22D 34L in their last 75 games (1.05 PPG), while Rotherham have gone 24W 18D 33L in their last 75 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Rotherham away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.14 PPG; Rotherham away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 17 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Burton Albion's record when hosting Rotherham specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Burton Albion
2
Draws
1
Rotherham
Recent Meetings
❓ Burton Albion vs Rotherham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Rotherham?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Burton Albion have won 3, Rotherham have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Rotherham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2026: Burton Albion 1-0 Rotherham.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Rotherham?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 51%, Rotherham 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Burton Albion) and 38% (Rotherham).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 38% of games; Rotherham in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Rotherham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burton Albion vs Rotherham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burton Albion and Rotherham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 40% of Rotherham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burton Albion and Rotherham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Burton Albion's recent games and 38% of Rotherham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Rotherham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 70% of Rotherham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Burton Albion defy the odds to beat Rotherham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Rotherham 1-0 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.45 xG and Rotherham 1.45 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rotherham landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.97 / defence 1.23 against Rotherham attack 1.02 / defence 1.08, drawn from 76/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 38% | Draw 25% | Rotherham 38%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 55%, Rotherham 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Rotherham's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.05 PPG, Rotherham 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Rotherham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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