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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Port Vale fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 33 as Stevenage welcome Port Vale to Lamex Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all League One games this season, Stevenage have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Stevenage's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 games at Lamex Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Stevenage are significantly better at Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Port Vale — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Port Vale's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stevenage 0.90 PPG, Port Vale 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Stevenage, 1 for Port Vale and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Stevenage winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Stevenage in-play and half-time data (74 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Port Vale in-play and half-time data (74 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 42% versus Port Vale 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stevenage 35% | Port Vale 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.31 xG and Port Vale 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.780 / defence 0.693 | Port Vale attack 0.659 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.151. Stevenage's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Port Vale bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Stevenage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Stevenage's defence rating of 0.693 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 76 Stevenage games / 28 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Stevenage 56% | Draw 29% | Port Vale 15%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 1.79 | Draw 3.45 | Port Vale 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Stevenage (56%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Port Vale's lower xG of 0.53 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Stevenage at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.83 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 30% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 40% | Port Vale 20% BTTS from recent games.

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