Rotherham 0-3 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cardiff (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rotherham face Cardiff.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rotherham and Cardiff meet at Aesseal New York Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:01 UTC.
Form
Rotherham (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Rotherham's home record at Aesseal New York Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League One appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Rotherham are significantly better at Aesseal New York Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Cardiff's overall League One record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Cardiff have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Cardiff arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rotherham have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Cardiff in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Cardiff, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 0–3 with Cardiff winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Cardiff have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Rotherham — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Cardiff — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rotherham 50% versus Cardiff 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rotherham 49% | Cardiff 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rotherham 1.16 xG and Cardiff 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rotherham attack 0.885 / defence 1.233 | Cardiff attack 1.078 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.106. Data: 74 Rotherham games / 29 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rotherham 30% | Draw 26% | Cardiff 44%. Fair-value odds: Rotherham 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Cardiff 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cardiff as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cardiff if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Rotherham 60% | Cardiff 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rotherham vs Cardiff | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Aesseal New York Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 15:01 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rotherham 30% | Draw 26% | Cardiff 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Rotherham 1.16 / Cardiff 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Rotherham attack 0.885 / def 1.233 | Cardiff attack 1.078 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Rotherham xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Cardiff xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rotherham vs Cardiff kick off?
Rotherham vs Cardiff kicked off at 15:01 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Aesseal New York Stadium.
What was the final score in Rotherham vs Cardiff?
Rotherham 0 - 3 Cardiff.
Where is Rotherham vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Aesseal New York Stadium.
What competition is Rotherham vs Cardiff part of?
Rotherham vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Rotherham vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Rotherham a 30% chance of winning, Cardiff a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rotherham vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Rotherham and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Rotherham vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and Cardiff?
Record (5 meetings): Rotherham 1W | Draws 0 | Cardiff 4W.
What form are Rotherham and Cardiff in?
Rotherham (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Cardiff (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rotherham's attack rating (0.89) and Cardiff's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cardiff's attack (1.08x) against Rotherham's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 74/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
30%
3.34
26%
3.87
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Rotherham xG
Total xG
2.63
1.47
Cardiff xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
7%
14.52
14%
7.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.6 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rotherham vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Rotherham and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Rotherham and 1.47 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Rotherham vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rotherham come into this having played 74 games, going 24W 18D 32L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Cardiff sit at 1.41 PPG from 74 outings (27W 23D 24L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Rotherham against 1.41 for Cardiff. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Rotherham's home form reads 16W 10D 11L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Cardiff have taken 1.08 points per game from 37 outings (8W 16D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rotherham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rotherham are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.35 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 74 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rotherham
Current Season
Cardiff
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rotherham and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Rotherham have gone 24W 18D 32L in their last 74 games (1.22 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 27W 23D 24L in their last 74 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rotherham at home or Cardiff away?
Rotherham's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rotherham at home: 1.57 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cardiff have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rotherham won 5-2 on 4 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rotherham have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cardiff — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Rotherham
0
Draws
5
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and Cardiff?
From 6 meetings on record, Rotherham have won 1, Cardiff have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rotherham and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Rotherham 0-3 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Rotherham and Cardiff?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rotherham 60%, Cardiff 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Rotherham) and 49% (Cardiff).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rotherham home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rotherham play Cardiff?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Rotherham's games and 65% of Cardiff's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rotherham vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Rotherham's recent games and 49% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rotherham and Cardiff tend to score early?
Rotherham have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cardiff run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Rotherham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff beat Rotherham 0-3 at Aesseal New York Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rotherham 1.16 xG and Cardiff 1.47 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Rotherham fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Cardiff outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rotherham attack 0.89 / defence 1.23 against Cardiff attack 1.08 / defence 0.97, drawn from 74/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rotherham 30% | Draw 26% | Cardiff 44%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rotherham 49%, Cardiff 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rotherham's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cardiff's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rotherham 1.22 PPG, Cardiff 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Rotherham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.