Swansea 0-4 Leeds – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Leeds at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swansea vs Leeds encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Leeds travel to Swansea.com Stadium to take on Swansea. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 13 February 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Swansea — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Swansea have posted 2W 3D 5L at Swansea.com Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Leeds stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Championship this season, Leeds have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Leeds — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Swansea have won 0, Leeds 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2023, ended 1–3 with Leeds winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Swansea in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Leeds in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Swansea 62% and Leeds 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 61% | Leeds 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 0.93 xG and Leeds 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.816 / defence 1.067 | Leeds attack 0.945 / defence 0.799. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.215. Leeds's defence strength of 0.799 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 77 Swansea games / 31 Leeds games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 28% | Draw 29% | Leeds 43%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Leeds 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Leeds at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leeds offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 60% | Leeds 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Leeds | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 28% | Draw 29% | Leeds 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Swansea 0.93 / Leeds 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.816 / def 1.067 | Leeds attack 0.945 / def 0.799 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Leeds (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Leeds xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Leeds kick off?
Swansea vs Leeds kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 13 February 2024 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Leeds?
Swansea 0 - 4 Leeds.
Where is Swansea vs Leeds being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Leeds part of?
Swansea vs Leeds is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Leeds?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 28% chance of winning, Leeds a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Leeds the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Leeds?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Swansea and Leeds will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Leeds have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Leeds?
Record (1 meetings): Swansea 0W | Draws 0 | Leeds 1W.
What form are Swansea and Leeds in?
Swansea (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Leeds (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Swansea's attack rating (0.82) and Leeds's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Leeds's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 77/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leeds Win
28%
3.59
29%
3.44
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.15
1.23
Leeds xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
8%
12.22
17%
5.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 14.3 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Leeds?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Swansea and Leeds expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Swansea and 1.23 for Leeds, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Leeds?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swansea's recent record stands at 25W 18D 26L from 69 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Leeds, meanwhile, have gone 26W 16D 27L across 69 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swansea on 1.35 PPG, Leeds on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Swansea have managed 14W 8D 12L from 34 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Leeds's away record stands at 9W 5D 20L across 34 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Leeds's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swansea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Swansea are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Leeds are on 1.49 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Swansea have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 69 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Current Season
Leeds
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Leeds in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 25W 18D 26L in their last 69 games (1.35 PPG), while Leeds have gone 26W 16D 27L in their last 69 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Leeds away?
Swansea's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.47 PPG; Leeds away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Feb 2024, when Leeds won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Swansea's record when hosting Leeds specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Swansea
1
Draws
3
Leeds
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Leeds?
From 4 meetings on record, Swansea have won 0, Leeds have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Leeds last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Leeds 2-2 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Leeds?
Leeds have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Leeds see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 62%, Leeds 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Swansea) and 56% (Leeds). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Leeds in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Leeds away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Leeds?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Swansea's games and 53% of Leeds's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Swansea vs Leeds usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Swansea's matches and 56% of Leeds's.
Do Swansea and Leeds tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Leeds in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Leeds run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Swansea.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leeds beat Swansea 0-4 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 0.93 xG and Leeds 1.23 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Swansea fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Leeds outscored their 1.23 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.82 / defence 1.07 against Leeds attack 0.94 / defence 0.80, drawn from 77/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 28% | Draw 29% | Leeds 43%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 61%, Leeds 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Leeds's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.35 PPG, Leeds 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leeds win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Leeds (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.