Swansea 1-2 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ipswich at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Swansea face Ipswich.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Swansea host Ipswich at Swansea.com Stadium in Championship (matchday 33). Kick-off is Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Swansea — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Swansea have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Ipswich have recorded 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ipswich away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Swansea) versus 1.20 (Ipswich). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Swansea, 1 for Ipswich and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Swansea 2–3 Ipswich — a Ipswich win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Swansea in-play tendencies (last 77 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 29 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Ipswich in-play tendencies (last 77 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 60% versus Ipswich 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 60% | Ipswich 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Swansea surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Ipswich have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.06 xG and Ipswich 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.767 / defence 1.242 | Ipswich attack 1.101 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.223. Swansea's attack rating of 0.767 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Swansea's defence rating of 1.242 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ipswich's projected output up. Data: built from Swansea's last 78 games and Ipswich's last 31.
Result probabilities: Swansea 24% | Draw 24% | Ipswich 52%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 4.16 | Draw 4.12 | Ipswich 1.94. Ipswich hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ipswich are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ipswich offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Swansea 50% (last 10 home games) | Ipswich 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Ipswich | Competition: Championship, matchday 33 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 24% | Draw 24% | Ipswich 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Swansea 1.06 / Ipswich 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.767 / def 1.242 | Ipswich attack 1.101 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Ipswich xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Swansea vs Ipswich FAQs
What time does Swansea vs Ipswich kick off?
Swansea vs Ipswich kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Ipswich?
Swansea 1 - 2 Ipswich.
Where is Swansea vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Ipswich part of?
Swansea vs Ipswich is a Championship fixture (matchday 33) (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 24% chance of winning, Ipswich a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Swansea and Ipswich will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Swansea vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Swansea's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Ipswich's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Ipswich's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Swansea's last 78 games and Ipswich's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
24%
4.16
24%
4.12
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.73
1.67
Ipswich xG
4.16
24%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
5%
22.11
18%
5.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Swansea vs Ipswich Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Swansea and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Swansea and 1.67 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Swansea's recent record stands at 27W 20D 30L from 77 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Ipswich, meanwhile, have gone 46W 23D 8L across 77 games — 2.09 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ipswich by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Swansea heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Swansea have managed 15W 9D 15L from their last 39 home games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ipswich's away record stands at 20W 13D 6L across their last 39 away games, a 1.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Swansea are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 2.08 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 77 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Current Season
Ipswich
Current Season
Swansea (Home) vs Ipswich (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Swansea
Current Season
Ipswich
Current Season
❓ Swansea vs Ipswich Form FAQs
What form are Swansea and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 27W 20D 30L in their last 77 games (1.31 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 46W 23D 8L in their last 77 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Ipswich away?
Ipswich's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.38 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Swansea or Ipswich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Ipswich in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ipswich have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Nov 2025, when Ipswich won Swansea 1-4 Ipswich.
Swansea's record when hosting Ipswich specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Swansea
0
Draws
4
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Swansea vs Ipswich H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Ipswich?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Swansea have won 0, Ipswich have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Ipswich last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Ipswich 3-0 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 56%, Ipswich 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Swansea) and 49% (Ipswich).
On the defensive side: Ipswich in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Swansea vs Ipswich Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Swansea and Ipswich matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Swansea's recent matches and 49% of Ipswich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Swansea and Ipswich matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Swansea's recent games and 49% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Ipswich matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Swansea's recent matches and 77% of Ipswich's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ipswich edge out Swansea 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Swansea 1-2 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.06 xG and Ipswich 1.67 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.77 / defence 1.24 against Ipswich attack 1.10 / defence 0.98, drawn from 78/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 24% | Draw 24% | Ipswich 52%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 60%, Ipswich 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (77 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Ipswich's trading profile (77 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.31. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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