Swansea 1-2 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ipswich at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swansea vs Ipswich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Swansea host Ipswich at Swansea.com Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Swansea — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Championship games this season, Ipswich have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ipswich away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Swansea) versus 1.20 (Ipswich). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Swansea have won 0, Ipswich 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 2–3 with Ipswich winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Swansea in-play tendencies (77 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Ipswich in-play tendencies (77 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 60% versus Ipswich 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 60% | Ipswich 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.06 xG and Ipswich 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.767 / defence 1.242 | Ipswich attack 1.101 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.223. Swansea's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 78 Swansea games / 31 Ipswich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 24% | Draw 24% | Ipswich 52%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 4.17 | Draw 4.17 | Ipswich 1.92. Ipswich hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ipswich are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ipswich offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Swansea 50% | Ipswich 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Ipswich | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 24% | Draw 24% | Ipswich 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Swansea 1.06 / Ipswich 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.767 / def 1.242 | Ipswich attack 1.101 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Ipswich xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Ipswich kick off?
Swansea vs Ipswich kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Ipswich?
Swansea 1 - 2 Ipswich.
Where is Swansea vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Ipswich part of?
Swansea vs Ipswich is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 24% chance of winning, Ipswich a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Swansea and Ipswich will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Ipswich?
Record (1 meetings): Swansea 0W | Draws 0 | Ipswich 1W.
What form are Swansea and Ipswich in?
Swansea (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Ipswich (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Swansea's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Ipswich's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Ipswich's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 78/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
24%
4.16
24%
4.12
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.73
1.67
Ipswich xG
4.16
24%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
5%
22.11
18%
5.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Swansea and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Swansea and 1.67 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Swansea's recent record stands at 27W 20D 30L from 77 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Ipswich, meanwhile, have gone 46W 23D 8L across 77 games — 2.09 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ipswich by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Swansea heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Swansea have managed 15W 9D 15L from 39 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ipswich's away record stands at 20W 13D 6L across 39 trips, a 1.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Swansea are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 2.08 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 77 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Current Season
Ipswich
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 27W 20D 30L in their last 77 games (1.31 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 46W 23D 8L in their last 77 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Ipswich away?
Ipswich's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.38 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Swansea or Ipswich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Ipswich in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Swansea and Ipswich runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ipswich go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2025, when Ipswich won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Swansea's record when hosting Ipswich specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Swansea
0
Draws
4
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Ipswich?
From 4 meetings on record, Swansea have won 0, Ipswich have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Ipswich last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Ipswich 3-0 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 56%, Ipswich 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Swansea) and 49% (Ipswich).
On the defensive side: Ipswich in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Ipswich?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Swansea's recent matches and 49% of Ipswich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Ipswich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Swansea's recent games and 49% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Ipswich tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Ipswich in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ipswich edge out Swansea 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Swansea 1-2 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.06 xG and Ipswich 1.67 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.77 / defence 1.24 against Ipswich attack 1.10 / defence 0.98, drawn from 78/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 24% | Draw 24% | Ipswich 52%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 60%, Ipswich 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (77 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Ipswich's trading profile (77 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.31. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.