Rotherham 1-2 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hull City (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rotherham face Hull City.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 32 as Rotherham welcome Hull City to AESSEAL New York Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Rotherham — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Rotherham's home record at AESSEAL New York Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Championship appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hull City stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Hull City have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hull City — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Rotherham, 2 for Hull City and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2023, ended 1–4 with Hull City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Rotherham in-play and half-time data (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Hull City in-play and half-time data (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rotherham 51% versus Hull City 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rotherham 49% | Hull City 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rotherham 1.23 xG and Hull City 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rotherham attack 0.748 / defence 1.034 | Hull City attack 1.060 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.215. Rotherham's attack strength of 0.748 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 76 Rotherham games / 76 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rotherham 34% | Draw 27% | Hull City 39%. Fair-value odds: Rotherham 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Hull City 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rotherham 50% | Hull City 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rotherham vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: AESSEAL New York Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rotherham 34% | Draw 27% | Hull City 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Rotherham 1.23 / Hull City 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Rotherham attack 0.748 / def 1.034 | Hull City attack 1.060 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Hull City (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Rotherham xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Hull City xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rotherham vs Hull City kick off?
Rotherham vs Hull City kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 13 February 2024 at AESSEAL New York Stadium.
What was the final score in Rotherham vs Hull City?
Rotherham 1 - 2 Hull City.
Where is Rotherham vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at AESSEAL New York Stadium.
What competition is Rotherham vs Hull City part of?
Rotherham vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Rotherham vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Rotherham a 34% chance of winning, Hull City a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rotherham vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Rotherham and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Rotherham vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and Hull City?
Record (3 meetings): Rotherham 0W | Draws 1 | Hull City 2W.
What form are Rotherham and Hull City in?
Rotherham (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Hull City (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rotherham's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Hull City's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Rotherham's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 76/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
34%
2.91
27%
3.77
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Rotherham xG
Total xG
2.56
1.33
Hull City xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
9%
11.00
11%
8.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.2 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rotherham vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Rotherham and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Rotherham and 1.33 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Rotherham vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rotherham's recent record stands at 14W 27D 35L from 76 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Hull City, meanwhile, have gone 27W 22D 27L across 76 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hull City by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rotherham heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rotherham have managed 12W 11D 14L from 37 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hull City's away record stands at 11W 12D 14L across 37 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Rotherham are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.24 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rotherham
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rotherham and Hull City in coming into this match?
Rotherham have gone 14W 27D 35L in their last 76 games (0.91 PPG), while Hull City have gone 27W 22D 27L in their last 76 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rotherham at home or Hull City away?
Rotherham's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rotherham at home: 1.27 PPG; Hull City away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Hull City have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Nov 2023, when Hull City won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rotherham's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Rotherham
1
Draws
3
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and Hull City?
From 4 meetings on record, Rotherham have won 0, Hull City have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rotherham and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2024, when Rotherham 1-2 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Rotherham and Hull City?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rotherham 62%, Hull City 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Rotherham) and 54% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Hull City in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rotherham home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rotherham play Hull City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Rotherham's games and 57% of Hull City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rotherham vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Rotherham's recent games and 54% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rotherham and Hull City tend to score early?
Rotherham have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Hull City in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hull City edge out Rotherham 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Rotherham 1-2 at AESSEAL New York Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rotherham 1.23 xG and Hull City 1.33 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rotherham attack 0.75 / defence 1.03 against Hull City attack 1.06 / defence 1.16, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rotherham 34% | Draw 27% | Hull City 39%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rotherham 49%, Hull City 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rotherham's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Hull City's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hull City arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.