Birmingham 1-0 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Birmingham at 45%, yet the head-to-head data favours Blackburn — this Birmingham vs Blackburn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Birmingham welcome Blackburn to St Andrew's Stadium in Championship (matchday 32). Kick-off is Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Birmingham stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Birmingham's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Blackburn — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Blackburn away from home: 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Birmingham 0.90 PPG, Blackburn 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Blackburn have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 1 for Birmingham.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2023, ended Birmingham 2–4 Blackburn — a Blackburn win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Blackburn have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Birmingham in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Blackburn in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Birmingham 49% versus Blackburn 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Birmingham 45% | Blackburn 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Birmingham 1.84 xG and Blackburn 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Birmingham attack 0.915 / defence 1.124 | Blackburn attack 1.118 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.215. Blackburn's defence rating of 1.419 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Birmingham's projected output up. Data: built from Birmingham's last 76 games and Blackburn's last 76.
Result probabilities: Birmingham 45% | Draw 22% | Blackburn 32%. Fair-value odds: Birmingham 2.21 | Draw 4.45 | Blackburn 3.11. Birmingham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.84 / 1.53) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Birmingham at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Birmingham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Birmingham's last 10 home games and Blackburn's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Birmingham 70% (last 10 home games) | Blackburn 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Birmingham vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, matchday 32 | Venue: St Andrew's Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Birmingham 45% | Draw 22% | Blackburn 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Birmingham 1.84 / Blackburn 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Birmingham attack 0.915 / def 1.124 | Blackburn attack 1.118 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Birmingham (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Birmingham xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Blackburn xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Birmingham vs Blackburn FAQs
What time does Birmingham vs Blackburn kick off?
Birmingham vs Blackburn kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 13 February 2024 at St Andrew's Stadium.
What was the final score in Birmingham vs Blackburn?
Birmingham 1 - 0 Blackburn.
Where is Birmingham vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at St Andrew's Stadium.
What competition is Birmingham vs Blackburn part of?
Birmingham vs Blackburn is a Championship fixture (matchday 32) (England).
Who is favourite to win Birmingham vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Birmingham a 45% chance of winning, Blackburn a 32% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Birmingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Birmingham and Blackburn will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Birmingham vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Birmingham's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Blackburn's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus Birmingham's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Birmingham's last 76 games and Blackburn's last 76 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Birmingham Win
45%
2.21
22%
4.45
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Birmingham xG
Total xG
3.37
1.53
Blackburn xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
10%
10.16
5%
19.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.7 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Birmingham vs Blackburn Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Birmingham vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Birmingham and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Birmingham and 1.53 for Blackburn, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Birmingham vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Birmingham come into this having played 76 games, going 22W 19D 35L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Blackburn sit at 1.38 PPG from 76 outings (31W 12D 33L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Birmingham on 1.12 PPG, Blackburn on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Birmingham's home form reads 12W 12D 13L across their last 37 home games, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Blackburn have taken 1.14 points per game from their last 37 away games (12W 6D 19L).
The Goals Picture
Birmingham are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.28 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Birmingham
Current Season
Blackburn
Current Season
Birmingham (Home) vs Blackburn (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Birmingham
Current Season
Blackburn
Current Season
❓ Birmingham vs Blackburn Form FAQs
What form are Birmingham and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Birmingham have gone 22W 19D 35L in their last 76 games (1.12 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 31W 12D 33L in their last 76 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Birmingham at home or Blackburn away?
Birmingham's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Birmingham at home: 1.30 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 3 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Dec 2021, when Blackburn won Blackburn 4-0 Birmingham.
Birmingham's record when hosting Blackburn specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Birmingham
0
Draws
5
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Birmingham vs Blackburn H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Blackburn?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Birmingham have won 3, Blackburn have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Birmingham and Blackburn last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 April 2026: Birmingham 0-1 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Birmingham and Blackburn?
Blackburn have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Birmingham see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Birmingham 51%, Blackburn 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Birmingham) and 62% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: Birmingham keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Birmingham have failed to score in 32% of games; Blackburn in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Birmingham home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Birmingham vs Blackburn Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Birmingham and Blackburn matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Birmingham's recent matches and 46% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Birmingham and Blackburn matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Birmingham's recent games and 62% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Birmingham and Blackburn matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Birmingham's recent matches and 73% of Blackburn's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Birmingham edge out Blackburn 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Birmingham beat Blackburn 1-0 at St Andrew's Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Birmingham 1.84 xG and Blackburn 1.53 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Birmingham fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Blackburn landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Birmingham attack 0.92 / defence 1.12 against Blackburn attack 1.12 / defence 1.42, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Birmingham 45% | Draw 22% | Blackburn 32%, with Birmingham to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Birmingham 45%, Blackburn 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Birmingham's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Blackburn's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Birmingham 1.12 PPG, Blackburn 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Birmingham win broke the near-deadlock. Birmingham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Blackburn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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