Stoke City 1-0 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates QPR at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stoke City face QPR.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Stoke City welcome QPR to bet365 Stadium in Championship (matchday 32). Kick-off is Wednesday 14 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Stoke City — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stoke City's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, QPR have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, QPR have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Stoke City) versus 0.90 (QPR). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Stoke City, 2 for QPR and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Nov 2023, ended Stoke City 2–4 QPR — a QPR win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Stoke City in-play tendencies (last 77 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
QPR in-play tendencies (last 77 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 43% versus QPR 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stoke City 43% | QPR 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 0.71 xG and QPR 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 0.561 / defence 1.210 | QPR attack 0.789 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.220. Stoke City's attack rating of 0.561 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.71. QPR's attack rating of 0.789 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Stoke City's defence rating of 1.210 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing QPR's projected output up. Data: built from Stoke City's last 77 games and QPR's last 77.
Result probabilities: Stoke City 23% | Draw 31% | QPR 47%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 4.44 | Draw 3.24 | QPR 2.15. QPR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Stoke City's lower xG of 0.71 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, QPR are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 71% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stoke City's last 10 home games and QPR's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stoke City 30% (last 10 home games) | QPR 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs QPR | Competition: Championship, matchday 32 | Venue: bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 23% | Draw 31% | QPR 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Stoke City 0.71 / QPR 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 0.561 / def 1.210 | QPR attack 0.789 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: QPR (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
1.16
QPR xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stoke City vs QPR FAQs
What time does Stoke City vs QPR kick off?
Stoke City vs QPR kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Wednesday 14 February 2024 at bet365 Stadium.
What was the final score in Stoke City vs QPR?
Stoke City 1 - 0 QPR.
Where is Stoke City vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs QPR part of?
Stoke City vs QPR is a Championship fixture (matchday 32) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 23% chance of winning, QPR a 47% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Stoke City and QPR will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Stoke City vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stoke City's attacking strength (0.56x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.71. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Stoke City's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stoke City's last 77 games and QPR's last 77 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
23%
4.44
31%
3.24
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Stoke City xG
Total xG
1.88
1.16
QPR xG
4.44
23%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
49%
2.04
Win to Nil
7%
14.22
23%
4.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 17.8 | 10.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stoke City vs QPR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Stoke City and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Stoke City and 1.16 for QPR, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stoke City's recent record stands at 22W 19D 36L from 77 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 20W 19D 38L across 77 games — 1.03 PPG, with L-W-D-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stoke City on 1.10 PPG, QPR on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stoke City have managed 10W 9D 19L from their last 38 home games — 1.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 11W 9D 18L across their last 38 away games, a 1.11 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Stoke City are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 0.95 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 77 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
Stoke City (Home) vs QPR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stoke City
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
❓ Stoke City vs QPR Form FAQs
What form are Stoke City and QPR in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 22W 19D 36L in their last 77 games (1.10 PPG), while QPR have gone 20W 19D 38L in their last 77 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or QPR away?
QPR's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 1.03 PPG; QPR away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 17 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stoke City's record when hosting QPR specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Stoke City
3
Draws
3
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Stoke City vs QPR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and QPR?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Stoke City have won 4, QPR have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stoke City and QPR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 January 2026: Stoke City 0-0 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Stoke City and QPR?
Stoke City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stoke City 34%, QPR 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Stoke City) and 45% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Stoke City have failed to score in 50% of games; QPR in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stoke City vs QPR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stoke City and QPR matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Stoke City's recent matches and 45% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stoke City and QPR matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Stoke City's recent games and 45% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stoke City and QPR matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Stoke City's recent matches and 63% of QPR's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stoke City defy the odds to beat QPR 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stoke City beat QPR 1-0 at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 0.71 xG and QPR 1.16 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. QPR landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 0.56 / defence 1.21 against QPR attack 0.79 / defence 0.89, drawn from 77/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stoke City 23% | Draw 31% | QPR 47%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Stoke City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 43%, QPR 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stoke City's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
QPR's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.10 PPG, QPR 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stoke City win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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