West Brom 2-0 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours West Brom (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as West Brom face Cardiff.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
West Brom host Cardiff at The Hawthorns in Championship, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
West Brom — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, West Brom have posted 7W 2D 1L at The Hawthorns — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Hawthorns. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — West Brom are significantly better at The Hawthorns than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cardiff stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Championship matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Cardiff have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
West Brom carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for West Brom, 0 for Cardiff and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2023, ended 1–0 with West Brom winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
West Brom in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Cardiff in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 49% versus Cardiff 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 40% | Cardiff 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.38 xG and Cardiff 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 1.023 / defence 0.683 | Cardiff attack 0.908 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.225. West Brom's defence rating of 0.683 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 76 West Brom games / 76 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 52% | Draw 28% | Cardiff 21%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Cardiff 4.76. West Brom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on West Brom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: West Brom 40% | Cardiff 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Feb 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 52% | Draw 28% | Cardiff 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG West Brom 1.38 / Cardiff 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 1.023 / def 0.683 | Cardiff attack 0.908 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: West Brom (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Cardiff xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Cardiff kick off?
West Brom vs Cardiff kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 13 February 2024 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Cardiff?
West Brom 2 - 0 Cardiff.
Where is West Brom vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Cardiff part of?
West Brom vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 52% chance of winning, Cardiff a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both West Brom and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Cardiff?
Record (5 meetings): West Brom 2W | Draws 3 | Cardiff 0W.
What form are West Brom and Cardiff in?
West Brom (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Cardiff (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from West Brom's attack rating (1.02) and Cardiff's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus West Brom's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 76/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
52%
1.94
28%
3.60
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.14
0.76
Cardiff xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
5%
19.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.3 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are West Brom and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for West Brom and 0.76 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
West Brom's recent record stands at 32W 19D 25L from 76 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Cardiff, meanwhile, have gone 25W 14D 37L across 76 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: West Brom on 1.51 PPG, Cardiff on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, West Brom have managed 21W 10D 7L from 38 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — West Brom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cardiff's away record stands at 13W 5D 20L across 38 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
West Brom are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.01 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Current Season
Cardiff
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Cardiff in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 32W 19D 25L in their last 76 games (1.51 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 25W 14D 37L in their last 76 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Cardiff away?
West Brom's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.92 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.16 PPG.
Have West Brom or Cardiff been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Cardiff in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2021, when West Brom won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
West Brom's record when hosting Cardiff specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
West Brom
5
Draws
0
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Cardiff?
From 8 meetings on record, West Brom have won 3, Cardiff have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Cardiff 0-0 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Cardiff?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 42%, Cardiff 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (West Brom) and 50% (Cardiff).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Cardiff in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Cardiff?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of West Brom's recent matches and 40% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of West Brom's recent games and 50% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Cardiff tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
West Brom cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cardiff.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom beat Cardiff 2-0 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.38 xG and Cardiff 0.76 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.02 / defence 0.68 against Cardiff attack 0.91 / defence 0.95, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 52% | Draw 28% | Cardiff 21%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 40%, Cardiff 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cardiff's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Brom 1.51 PPG, Cardiff 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Brom win broke the near-deadlock. West Brom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.