Leicester 3-1 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Leicester at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leicester vs Swansea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Leicester and Swansea meet at King Power Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 30 January 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Leicester (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Leicester at King Power Stadium this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Power Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Swansea have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Championship this season, Swansea have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Leicester's 2.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Swansea's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Leicester 1W, Swansea 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 3–1 with Leicester winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Leicester goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Swansea goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leicester 54% versus Swansea 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 59% | Swansea 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 2.29 xG and Swansea 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 1.292 / defence 0.818 | Swansea attack 1.136 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.186. Leicester carry an above-average attack strength of 1.292 — their λ of 2.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Swansea bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing Leicester's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Leicester games / 74 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leicester 64% | Draw 20% | Swansea 17%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Swansea 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Leicester (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.29 / 1.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leicester are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Leicester 30% | Swansea 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Jan 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 64% | Draw 20% | Swansea 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 60% | xG Leicester 2.29 / Swansea 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 1.292 / def 0.818 | Swansea attack 1.136 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Leicester (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Swansea xG
60%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leicester vs Swansea kick off?
Leicester vs Swansea kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 30 January 2024 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Swansea?
Leicester 3 - 1 Swansea.
Where is Leicester vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Swansea part of?
Leicester vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 64% chance of winning, Swansea a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Leicester and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Leicester vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Swansea?
Record (1 meetings): Leicester 1W | Draws 0 | Swansea 0W.
What form are Leicester and Swansea in?
Leicester (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Swansea (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Leicester's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Swansea's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.29. Flip it around — Swansea's attack (1.14x) against Leicester's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 28/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
64%
1.57
20%
5.07
17%
6.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Leicester xG
Total xG
3.39
1.10
Swansea xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
6.02
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
10%
9.88
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
2%
59.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Leicester and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Leicester and 1.10 for Swansea, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Swansea?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Leicester's recent record stands at 30W 10D 26L from 66 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Swansea, meanwhile, have gone 24W 18D 24L across 66 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Leicester against 1.36 for Swansea. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Leicester have managed 16W 5D 12L from 33 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Swansea's away record stands at 10W 10D 13L across 33 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leicester come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Leicester are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.50 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Swansea in 64%.
Last 66 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leicester and Swansea in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 30W 10D 26L in their last 66 games (1.52 PPG), while Swansea have gone 24W 18D 24L in their last 66 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Swansea away?
Leicester's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.61 PPG; Swansea away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Leicester have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Swansea — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Leicester
0
Draws
1
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Swansea?
From 4 meetings on record, Leicester have won 3, Swansea have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Leicester 0-1 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Leicester and Swansea?
Leicester have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Leicester see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 42%, Swansea 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Leicester and 64% for Swansea. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Leicester keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Leicester have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leicester play Swansea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Leicester's recent matches and 64% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leicester vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Leicester's matches and 64% of Swansea's.
Do Leicester and Swansea tend to score early?
Leicester have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Swansea in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Leicester cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Swansea.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leicester beat Swansea 3-1 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 2.29 xG and Swansea 1.10 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 1.29 / defence 0.82 against Swansea attack 1.14 / defence 1.26, drawn from 28/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 64% | Draw 20% | Swansea 17%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 59%, Swansea 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Swansea's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leicester 1.52 PPG, Swansea 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leicester win broke the near-deadlock. Leicester (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. Swansea (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.