Cardiff 0-0 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Blackburn at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cardiff vs Blackburn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Blackburn make the trip to Cardiff City Stadium to face Cardiff in Championship, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Tuesday 20 February 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cardiff have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Blackburn's overall Championship record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Blackburn away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Cardiff, 0.60 for Blackburn — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across the last 5 meetings, Blackburn have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Cardiff's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Blackburn winning.
It is worth noting that Blackburn have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Cardiff goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Blackburn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 42% versus Blackburn 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 41% | Blackburn 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.43 xG and Blackburn 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.754 / defence 1.172 | Blackburn attack 1.032 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.237. Cardiff's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.43 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Blackburn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing Cardiff's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 78 Cardiff games / 78 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 36% | Draw 25% | Blackburn 39%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Blackburn 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Blackburn as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Blackburn if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cardiff 30% | Blackburn 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 36% | Draw 25% | Blackburn 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Cardiff 1.43 / Blackburn 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.754 / def 1.172 | Blackburn attack 1.032 / def 1.357 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Blackburn xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Blackburn kick off?
Cardiff vs Blackburn kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 20 February 2024 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Blackburn?
Cardiff 0 - 0 Blackburn.
Where is Cardiff vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Blackburn part of?
Cardiff vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 36% chance of winning, Blackburn a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cardiff and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Blackburn?
Record (5 meetings): Cardiff 1W | Draws 0 | Blackburn 4W.
What form are Cardiff and Blackburn in?
Cardiff (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Blackburn (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cardiff's attack rating (0.75) and Blackburn's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Blackburn's attack (1.03x) against Cardiff's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 78/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
36%
2.76
25%
4.06
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.93
1.50
Blackburn xG
2.76
36%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
8%
12.32
9%
10.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.5 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.50 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cardiff come into this having played 78 games, going 25W 14D 39L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Blackburn sit at 1.36 PPG from 78 outings (31W 13D 34L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Cardiff against 1.36 for Blackburn. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cardiff's home form reads 12W 9D 17L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Blackburn have taken 1.05 points per game from 38 outings (11W 7D 20L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cardiff are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.27 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 78 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Current Season
Blackburn
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 25W 14D 39L in their last 78 games (1.14 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 31W 13D 34L in their last 78 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Blackburn away?
Cardiff's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.18 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Blackburn won 5-1 on 25 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cardiff have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Blackburn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cardiff
1
Draws
5
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Blackburn?
From 8 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 2, Blackburn have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Blackburn 1-2 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Blackburn?
Blackburn have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cardiff see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 45%, Blackburn 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Cardiff) and 60% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cardiff have failed to score in 29% of games; Blackburn in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Blackburn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Cardiff's recent matches and 47% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Cardiff's recent games and 60% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Blackburn tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cardiff's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 29, as Cardiff and Blackburn drew 0-0 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.43 xG and Blackburn 1.50 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cardiff fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Blackburn landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.75 / defence 1.17 against Blackburn attack 1.03 / defence 1.36, drawn from 78/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 36% | Draw 25% | Blackburn 39%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 41%, Blackburn 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Blackburn's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.14 PPG, Blackburn 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Blackburn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.