Swansea 0-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swansea at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swansea vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Swansea host Plymouth at Swansea.com Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Swansea — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Swansea have posted 3W 3D 4L at Swansea.com Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Plymouth have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Plymouth's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Swansea at 1.20 PPG versus Plymouth's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Swansea register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Plymouth in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Swansea have won 1, Plymouth 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 3–1 with Swansea winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Swansea in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Swansea 62% and Plymouth 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 61% | Plymouth 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.46 xG and Plymouth 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.904 / defence 1.105 | Plymouth attack 0.753 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.183. Data: 75 Swansea games / 28 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 47% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 25%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Plymouth 4.00. Swansea hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Swansea are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swansea offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Swansea 70% | Plymouth 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 47% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Swansea 1.46 / Plymouth 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.904 / def 1.105 | Plymouth attack 0.753 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Swansea (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Plymouth xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Plymouth kick off?
Swansea vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Plymouth?
Swansea 0 - 1 Plymouth.
Where is Swansea vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Plymouth part of?
Swansea vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 47% chance of winning, Plymouth a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Swansea and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Plymouth?
Record (1 meetings): Swansea 1W | Draws 0 | Plymouth 0W.
What form are Swansea and Plymouth in?
Swansea (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Plymouth (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Swansea's attack at 0.90x the league average against Plymouth's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.61
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.44
0.98
Plymouth xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
6%
17.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Swansea and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Swansea and 0.98 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Swansea come into this having played 74 games, going 26W 20D 28L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Plymouth sit at 1.81 PPG from 74 outings (39W 17D 18L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Swansea — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Swansea's home form reads 15W 9D 13L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Plymouth have taken 1.24 points per game from 37 outings (11W 13D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's season.
The Goals Picture
Swansea are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.74 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Swansea have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 74 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 26W 20D 28L in their last 74 games (1.32 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 39W 17D 18L in their last 74 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Plymouth away?
Swansea's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.46 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Swansea or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Plymouth in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Swansea and Plymouth runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Swansea go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2025, when Swansea won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Swansea's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Swansea
0
Draws
1
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Swansea have won 3, Plymouth have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2025, when Swansea 3-0 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Plymouth?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 60%, Plymouth 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Swansea) and 60% (Plymouth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Plymouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Swansea's games and 62% of Plymouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Swansea vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Swansea's matches and 60% of Plymouth's.
Do Swansea and Plymouth tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Plymouth defy the odds to beat Swansea 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Swansea 0-1 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.46 xG and Plymouth 0.98 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Swansea fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.90 / defence 1.10 against Plymouth attack 0.75 / defence 1.15, drawn from 75/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 47% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 25%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Plymouth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 61%, Plymouth 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Plymouth's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.32. That form edge translated into the three points. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.49 scoring average — below par going forward. Plymouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.49 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.