Leicester 1-1 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leicester at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leicester vs Ipswich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Ipswich travel to King Power Stadium to take on Leicester. The game is scheduled for Monday 22 January 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Leicester — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Leicester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leicester's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at King Power Stadium this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Power Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ipswich stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Championship matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ipswich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ipswich's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Leicester at 2.30 PPG versus Ipswich's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Leicester have won 0, Ipswich 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Leicester in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Ipswich in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leicester 54% versus Ipswich 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 60% | Ipswich 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.86 xG and Ipswich 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 1.356 / defence 0.792 | Ipswich attack 0.872 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.192. Leicester carry an above-average attack strength of 1.356 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Leicester's defence rating of 0.792 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 27 Leicester games / 27 Ipswich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leicester 62% | Draw 22% | Ipswich 16%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Ipswich 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Leicester (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Leicester at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Leicester 20% | Ipswich 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Ipswich | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 22 Jan 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 62% | Draw 22% | Ipswich 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 48% | xG Leicester 1.86 / Ipswich 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 1.356 / def 0.792 | Ipswich attack 0.872 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Leicester (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Ipswich xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leicester vs Ipswich kick off?
Leicester vs Ipswich kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 22 January 2024 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Ipswich?
Leicester 1 - 1 Ipswich.
Where is Leicester vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Ipswich part of?
Leicester vs Ipswich is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 62% chance of winning, Ipswich a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Leicester and Ipswich will score (BTTS).
Will Leicester vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Ipswich?
Record (1 meetings): Leicester 0W | Draws 1 | Ipswich 0W.
What form are Leicester and Ipswich in?
Leicester (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Ipswich (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Leicester's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Ipswich's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, Ipswich's attack versus Leicester's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
62%
1.62
22%
4.46
16%
6.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.69
0.82
Ipswich xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
6.32
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
16%
6.44
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
2%
40.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 10.4 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Leicester and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Leicester and 0.82 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Ipswich?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Leicester come into this having played 65 games, going 30W 9D 26L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Leicester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ipswich sit at 2.09 PPG from 65 outings (39W 19D 7L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Ipswich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ipswich carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Leicester — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Leicester's home form reads 16W 4D 12L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Ipswich have taken 1.78 points per game from 32 outings (15W 12D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Leicester are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 2.08 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Blended
Ipswich
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leicester and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 30W 9D 26L in their last 65 games (1.52 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 39W 19D 7L in their last 65 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Ipswich away?
Ipswich's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.62 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Leicester or Ipswich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leicester have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Ipswich in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Leicester's record when hosting Ipswich specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Leicester
4
Draws
0
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Ipswich?
From 6 meetings on record, Leicester have won 2, Ipswich have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Ipswich last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Ipswich 1-1 Leicester.
Who has won more matches between Leicester and Ipswich?
Leicester have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Leicester see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 41%, Ipswich 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Leicester) and 47% (Ipswich).
On the defensive side: Leicester keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Ipswich in 41%; Leicester have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leicester play Ipswich?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Leicester's recent matches and 50% of Ipswich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leicester vs Ipswich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Leicester's recent games and 47% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leicester and Ipswich tend to score early?
Leicester have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Ipswich in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Leicester and Ipswich share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leicester and Ipswich finished level at 1-1 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.86 xG and Ipswich 0.82 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Leicester fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 1.36 / defence 0.79 against Ipswich attack 0.87 / defence 0.97, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 62% | Draw 22% | Ipswich 16%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 60%, Ipswich 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Ipswich's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.52. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.