Plymouth 0-3 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs West Brom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees West Brom travel to Home Park to take on Plymouth. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 20 February 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plymouth stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Plymouth at Home Park this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Plymouth are significantly better at Home Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Championship games this season, West Brom have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Championship this season, West Brom have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour West Brom — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Plymouth have won 0, West Brom 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Plymouth trading profile (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
West Brom trading profile (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 58% versus West Brom 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 60% | West Brom 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.67 xG and West Brom 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.296 / defence 1.369 | West Brom attack 0.899 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.237. Plymouth carry an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — their λ of 1.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 32 Plymouth games / 78 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 41% | Draw 23% | West Brom 35%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.44 | Draw 4.35 | West Brom 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plymouth as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form West Brom (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 70% | West Brom 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 41% | Draw 23% | West Brom 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Plymouth 1.67 / West Brom 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.296 / def 1.369 | West Brom attack 0.899 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.52
West Brom xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs West Brom kick off?
Plymouth vs West Brom kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 20 February 2024 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs West Brom?
Plymouth 0 - 3 West Brom.
Where is Plymouth vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs West Brom part of?
Plymouth vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 41% chance of winning, West Brom a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Plymouth and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and West Brom?
Record (1 meetings): Plymouth 0W | Draws 1 | West Brom 0W.
What form are Plymouth and West Brom in?
Plymouth (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. West Brom (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 1.30x the league average against West Brom's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, West Brom's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
41%
2.42
23%
4.27
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Plymouth xG
Total xG
3.19
1.52
West Brom xG
2.42
41%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
9%
11.10
7%
15.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.4 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Plymouth and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.52 for West Brom, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plymouth's recent record stands at 40W 18D 20L from 78 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five.
West Brom, meanwhile, have gone 33W 19D 26L across 78 games — 1.51 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.77 PPG, West Brom on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Plymouth have managed 27W 5D 6L from 38 games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
West Brom's away record stands at 11W 9D 18L across 38 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.33 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 78 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
West Brom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and West Brom in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 40W 18D 20L in their last 78 games (1.77 PPG), while West Brom have gone 33W 19D 26L in their last 78 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or West Brom away?
Plymouth's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.26 PPG; West Brom away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Plymouth or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, West Brom in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Feb 2024, when West Brom won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plymouth's record when hosting West Brom specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Plymouth
1
Draws
2
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and West Brom?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 1, West Brom have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Plymouth 2-1 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and West Brom?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 55%, West Brom 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Plymouth) and 45% (West Brom).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play West Brom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Plymouth's games and 55% of West Brom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Plymouth's recent games and 45% of West Brom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and West Brom tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, West Brom in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant West Brom run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Plymouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom beat Plymouth 0-3 at Home Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.67 xG and West Brom 1.52 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Plymouth fell 1.7 short of their projected output. West Brom outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.30 / defence 1.37 against West Brom attack 0.90 / defence 0.92, drawn from 32/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 41% | Draw 23% | West Brom 35%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual West Brom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 60%, West Brom 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
West Brom's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.77 PPG, West Brom 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Brom win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. West Brom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.