Sunderland 3-1 Stoke City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stoke City at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sunderland face Stoke City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Stoke City travel to Stadium of Light to take on Sunderland in Championship (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sunderland have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Sunderland have gone 6W 0D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Stoke City stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stoke City away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sunderland 1.40 PPG, Stoke City 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Sunderland, 2 for Stoke City and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Sunderland 1–2 Stoke City — a Stoke City win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sunderland trading profile (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Stoke City trading profile (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 54% versus Stoke City 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 54% | Stoke City 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.21 xG and Stoke City 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.941 / defence 1.000 | Stoke City attack 1.028 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.187. Data: built from Sunderland's last 74 games and Stoke City's last 74.
Result probabilities: Sunderland 36% | Draw 28% | Stoke City 36%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.80 | Draw 3.57 | Stoke City 2.75. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 36% to win, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Sunderland 36% and Stoke City 36%, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sunderland 40% (last 10 home games) | Stoke City 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Stoke City | Competition: Championship, matchday 29 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 27 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 36% | Draw 28% | Stoke City 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Sunderland 1.21 / Stoke City 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 0.941 / def 1.000 | Stoke City attack 1.028 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Sunderland and Stoke City level at 36% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Stoke City xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sunderland vs Stoke City FAQs
What time does Sunderland vs Stoke City kick off?
Sunderland vs Stoke City kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Stoke City?
Sunderland 3 - 1 Stoke City.
Where is Sunderland vs Stoke City being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Stoke City part of?
Sunderland vs Stoke City is a Championship fixture (matchday 29) (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Stoke City?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 36% chance of winning, Stoke City a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Stoke City?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sunderland and Stoke City will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Sunderland vs Stoke City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sunderland's attack rating (0.94) and Stoke City's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stoke City's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sunderland's last 74 games and Stoke City's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stoke City Win
36%
2.80
28%
3.57
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.43
1.22
Stoke City xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
11%
9.50
11%
9.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sunderland vs Stoke City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Stoke City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Stoke City expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.22 for Stoke City, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Stoke City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sunderland come into this having played 74 games, going 30W 18D 26L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Stoke City sit at 1.15 PPG from 74 outings (22W 19D 33L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sunderland on 1.46 PPG, Stoke City on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sunderland's home form reads 16W 8D 13L across their last 37 home games, a 1.51 PPG return.
Away from home, Stoke City have taken 1.24 points per game from their last 37 away games (12W 10D 15L).
The Goals Picture
Sunderland are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Stoke City are on 1.11 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Current Season
Stoke City
Current Season
Sunderland (Home) vs Stoke City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sunderland
Current Season
Stoke City
Current Season
❓ Sunderland vs Stoke City Form FAQs
What form are Sunderland and Stoke City in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 30W 18D 26L in their last 74 games (1.46 PPG), while Stoke City have gone 22W 19D 33L in their last 74 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Stoke City away?
Sunderland's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.51 PPG; Stoke City away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 29 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Mar 2023, when Stoke City won Sunderland 1-5 Stoke City.
Sunderland's record when hosting Stoke City specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sunderland
0
Draws
3
Stoke City
Recent Meetings
❓ Sunderland vs Stoke City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Stoke City?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sunderland have won 3, Stoke City have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Stoke City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 December 2024: Stoke City 1-0 Sunderland.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sunderland see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 57%, Stoke City 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Sunderland) and 40% (Stoke City).
On the defensive side: Stoke City in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Stoke City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sunderland vs Stoke City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sunderland and Stoke City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Sunderland's recent matches and 49% of Stoke City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sunderland and Stoke City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Sunderland's recent games and 40% of Stoke City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Stoke City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Sunderland's recent matches and 81% of Stoke City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sunderland cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Stoke City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Stoke City 3-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 29, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.21 xG and Stoke City 1.22 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sunderland beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Stoke City attack 1.03 / defence 0.91, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 36% | Draw 28% | Stoke City 36%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 54%, Stoke City 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Stoke City's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.46 PPG, Stoke City 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.51 average — above their attacking norm. Stoke City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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