Derby 2-0 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Derby face Swansea.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derby host Swansea at Pride Park in Championship (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Derby stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Derby's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Swansea have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Swansea have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Derby 1.50 PPG, Swansea 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Derby's games and 60% of Swansea's (from Derby's last 10 home games and Swansea's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Derby have won 1, Swansea 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2025, ended Derby 2–1 Swansea — a Derby win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Derby in-play tendencies (last 77 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Swansea in-play tendencies (last 77 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 56% versus Swansea 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 44% | Swansea 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.20 xG and Swansea 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.881 / defence 1.135 | Swansea attack 0.907 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.144. Data: built from Derby's last 77 games and Swansea's last 77.
Result probabilities: Derby 35% | Draw 31% | Swansea 34%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.85 | Draw 3.23 | Swansea 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Derby 80% (last 10 home games) | Swansea 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, matchday 32 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 35% | Draw 31% | Swansea 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Derby 1.20 / Swansea 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.881 / def 1.135 | Swansea attack 0.907 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Derby (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Swansea xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Derby vs Swansea FAQs
What time does Derby vs Swansea kick off?
Derby vs Swansea kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Pride Park.
What was the final score in Derby vs Swansea?
Derby 2 - 0 Swansea.
Where is Derby vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs Swansea part of?
Derby vs Swansea is a Championship fixture (matchday 32) (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 35% chance of winning, Swansea a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Derby and Swansea will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Derby vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Derby's attack rating (0.88) and Swansea's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Swansea's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Derby's last 77 games and Swansea's last 77 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
35%
2.85
31%
3.23
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Derby xG
Total xG
2.38
1.18
Swansea xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
11%
9.26
10%
9.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Derby vs Swansea Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Derby and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Derby and 1.18 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby come into this having played 77 games, going 25W 20D 32L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Swansea sit at 1.34 PPG from 77 outings (29W 16D 32L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.23 PPG, Swansea on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Derby's home form reads 12W 11D 15L across their last 38 home games, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Swansea have taken 1.03 points per game from their last 38 away games (11W 6D 21L).
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.16 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 77 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
Derby (Home) vs Swansea (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Derby
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
❓ Derby vs Swansea Form FAQs
What form are Derby and Swansea in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 25W 20D 32L in their last 77 games (1.23 PPG), while Swansea have gone 29W 16D 32L in their last 77 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Swansea away?
Derby's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.24 PPG; Swansea away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Aug 2026, when Swansea won Derby 0-3 Swansea.
Derby's record when hosting Swansea specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Derby
1
Draws
4
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Derby vs Swansea H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Swansea?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Derby have won 2, Swansea have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Derby and Swansea last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Derby 0-3 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Swansea?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 50%, Swansea 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Derby) and 47% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Derby have failed to score in 26% of games; Swansea in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Derby vs Swansea Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Derby and Swansea matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Derby's recent matches and 45% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Derby and Swansea matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Derby's recent games and 47% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Swansea matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Derby's recent matches and 66% of Swansea's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Swansea.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Swansea 2-0 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.20 xG and Swansea 1.18 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Swansea landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.88 / defence 1.14 against Swansea attack 0.91 / defence 1.05, drawn from 77/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 35% | Draw 31% | Swansea 34%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 44%, Swansea 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Swansea's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.23 PPG, Swansea 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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