Charlton 1-0 Stoke City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Charlton take on Stoke City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stoke City make the trip to The Valley to face Charlton in Championship, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Charlton's overall Championship record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Charlton at The Valley this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stoke City (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Stoke City have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Charlton against 1.00 for Stoke City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Charlton lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with Stoke City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Charlton — key trading statistics (77 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Stoke City — key trading statistics (77 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 44% versus Stoke City 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 47% | Stoke City 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 0.75 xG and Stoke City 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.747 / defence 0.987 | Stoke City attack 0.777 / defence 0.777. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.149. Charlton's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Stoke City's defence strength of 0.777 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 30 Charlton games / 77 Stoke City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 27% | Draw 38% | Stoke City 35%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 3.70 | Draw 2.63 | Stoke City 2.86. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.63. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.63 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Charlton's lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 60% | Stoke City 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Stoke City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 27% | Draw 38% | Stoke City 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 33% | xG Charlton 0.75 / Stoke City 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.747 / def 0.987 | Stoke City attack 0.777 / def 0.777 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Stoke City xG
33%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Stoke City kick off?
Charlton vs Stoke City kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Stoke City?
Charlton 1 - 0 Stoke City.
Where is Charlton vs Stoke City being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Stoke City part of?
Charlton vs Stoke City is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Stoke City?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 27% chance of winning, Stoke City a 35% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Stoke City?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Charlton and Stoke City will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Stoke City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Stoke City?
Record (1 meetings): Charlton 0W | Draws 0 | Stoke City 1W.
What form are Charlton and Stoke City in?
Charlton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Stoke City (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Charlton's attack rating (0.75) and Stoke City's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 0.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stoke City's attack (0.78x) against Charlton's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 30/77 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.66
38%
2.62
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Charlton xG
Total xG
1.63
0.88
Stoke City xG
3.66
27%
Home win
2.62
38%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.06
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
11%
8.83
16%
6.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.5 | 17.2 | 7.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.9 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Stoke City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.2%.
How many goals are Charlton and Stoke City expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Charlton and 0.88 for Stoke City, a combined total of 1.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Stoke City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Charlton come into this having played 77 games, going 34W 20D 23L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Stoke City sit at 1.22 PPG from 77 outings (24W 22D 31L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Charlton against 1.22 for Stoke City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Charlton's home form reads 22W 10D 6L across 38 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Charlton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Stoke City have taken 1.05 points per game from 38 outings (10W 10D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charlton are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Stoke City are on 1.03 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 77 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Stoke City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Stoke City in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 34W 20D 23L in their last 77 games (1.58 PPG), while Stoke City have gone 24W 22D 31L in their last 77 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Stoke City away?
Charlton's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 2.00 PPG; Stoke City away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Charlton or Stoke City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Stoke City in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 11 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Charlton
0
Draws
1
Stoke City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Stoke City?
From 2 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, Stoke City have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Stoke City last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2026, when Charlton 1-0 Stoke City.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Stoke City see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 50%, Stoke City 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Charlton) and 32% (Stoke City).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Stoke City in 34%; Stoke City in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Stoke City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Stoke City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Charlton's recent matches and 34% of Stoke City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Stoke City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Charlton's recent games and 32% of Stoke City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Stoke City tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Stoke City in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charlton defy the odds to beat Stoke City 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Stoke City 1-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 0.75 xG and Stoke City 0.88 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stoke City landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.75 / defence 0.99 against Stoke City attack 0.78 / defence 0.78, drawn from 30/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 27% | Draw 38% | Stoke City 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Charlton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 47%, Stoke City 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stoke City's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.58 PPG, Stoke City 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.