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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Charlton take on Stoke City.

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Analysis

Stoke City make the trip to The Valley to face Charlton in Championship, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Current Form

Charlton's overall Championship record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Charlton at The Valley this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Stoke City (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Stoke City have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Charlton against 1.00 for Stoke City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Charlton lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with Stoke City winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Charlton — key trading statistics (77 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

Stoke City — key trading statistics (77 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 44% versus Stoke City 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 47% | Stoke City 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 0.75 xG and Stoke City 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.747 / defence 0.987 | Stoke City attack 0.777 / defence 0.777. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.149. Charlton's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Stoke City's defence strength of 0.777 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 30 Charlton games / 77 Stoke City games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Charlton 27% | Draw 38% | Stoke City 35%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 3.70 | Draw 2.63 | Stoke City 2.86. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.63. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.63 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Charlton's lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.

Picks & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 1.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 60% | Stoke City 20% BTTS from recent games.

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