🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Swansea at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swansea vs Bristol City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Bristol City make the trip to Swansea.com Stadium to face Swansea in Championship, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 12:30 UTC.

Form

Swansea (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Swansea at Swansea.com Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Swansea are significantly better at Swansea.com Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Bristol City's overall Championship record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Bristol City's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Swansea lead 4W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with Bristol City winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Swansea goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

Bristol City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 46% versus Bristol City 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 46% | Bristol City 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.59 xG and Bristol City 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 1.181 / defence 0.942 | Bristol City attack 0.935 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.164. Data: 78 Swansea games / 78 Bristol City games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Swansea 49% | Draw 27% | Bristol City 23%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Bristol City 4.35. Swansea hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Swansea as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Swansea if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 60% | Bristol City 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights